TL;DR - I use the craft beer industry as a way to understand Capitalist Propaganda, how Capitalism and Socialism are inextricably linked to each other, and how through the use of propaganda, companies use the "illusion of choice" to coerce you into believing that you prefer the products that are most favorable to them. In order to change this into the consumer's favor, you need to be an informed consumer in the free market, and raise class consciousness to overthrow the tyranny of Capitalist Propaganda, that is called "Marketing".
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You can't understand Capitalist Propaganda unless you have a solid understanding of what Capitalism is beyond the literal definition of the word, which is just an abstract ideal. Propaganda plays off of the discrepancies between the ideals of Capitalism, like the free market, which is another abstract ideal, and the reality of Capitalism in practice in America, which can be characterized as Trickle Down Economics. Capitalism sought to be a pragmatic alternative to its economic predecessors, a fact which drives Capitalist Propaganda. However, through layers of abstraction throughout the years, it has become more of a religion, as critics refer to the increasingly ideological concept as "Supply Side Jesus", meaning you give all the money to the rich, it'll trickle down to the poor, and they can "vote" on the actions of the capitalists through monetary interactions in the free market.
Capitalist Propaganda is engrained in America, because at the time of our founding, Adam Smith wrote "Wealth of Nations", which is considered the Bible of the Free Market. This groundbreaking work utilized Newton's Laws of Physics, which were en vogue at the time, to describe how interactions in the marketplace would balance each other out, just as the laws of Newtonian Physics do.
The very noble purpose of Wealth of Nations was not create the oligarchy we have today, but to do the opposite. He wanted to describe a system that would protect individual freedoms and be truly democratic. Just as Lenin and Stalin bastardized the works of Marx, so too have capitalists in America bastardized the intentions of Adam Smith.
Capitalism and Socialism are best learned side by side, in my opinion, to avoid falling into the trappings of either ideology that our brains like to do. Which one is better? It depends on the market, but the answer is almost always somewhere in between.
Through learning how Socialist concepts can be applied to problems in Capitalism, you can cut through the propaganda and will see for yourself that these problems can be solved if we just drop the labels and do what's best for society and the individual. The problem is always finding the proper balance.
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WHAT? CAPITALISM AND SOCIALISM ARE JOINED AT THE HIP?
Yep. You can never live in a pure economic system. Purity is always an illusion. If you want something to be pure, you have to put a lot of energy into making it that way. Nature likes to mix stuff up. This is why ideologies around racial purity and fascism always fail. There are people who want a "pure" economic system, but they are usually the people at the top and would only get richer from more purity while the rest of society loses freedom and slowly starves.
In a nutshell, Capitalism promotes laws that benefit those with money, while Socialism promotes a safety net that benefits everyone. Every single human is born into Socialism. As a baby, you need food, someone else works for it and gives it to you, but then at some point, you are expected to exchange labor for capital, and buy your own food. See? The two are forever bound as the yin and yang. You can also grow your own food, but for that you need land, which is capital.
These interactions are very tricky. I only want to tell you enough so that you can start to see Capitalist Propaganda, because right now, you're like a fish in water that can't see water. I often use this line to describe a person who can't see their own homegrown propaganda. The best way I found to study Capitalism is by relating it Socialism, the "air" above the "water" of Capitalism, if that makes sense.
I always find it best to look at a microcosm to understand these concepts. And today, that microcosm is beer.
Mmmm....Beeeeeeeeeerrrrrrr.....
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CONFLICT OF INTEREST AND THE ILLUSION OF CHOICE
Before I poison your mind with my own propaganda, picture you're on vacation and you walk into a bar and want to order a beer. If you really want to understand the power of propaganda in your own life, really think of this before we break this all down. Really think, what makes you decide which beer to order? Do you like to look at the labels on the tap or bottle? That's obvious propaganda. It has absolutely nothing to do with the taste or quality of the beer itself, but sways your opinion toward logos you've seen before, which is why you see so many beer advertisements, which means that money that could've gone into quality is instead going into propaganda, and you're already biased towards an inferior product. Interesting. You really can't help being swayed by marketing, but at least you can be conscious of that fact, and that's important in order to be an informed consumer.
Do you ask the bartender for a recommendation? Why would you do that? You don't know the bartender any better than the beers in front of you. How do you know they aren't paid more to offer you a beer that sucks and is 12 years old and the owner wants to get rid of it? Do you ask for a certain style of beer? Do you ask for a local beer? And once you finally narrow it down to a few choices, do you ask for samples so you can make up your own mind? You should always do this. Then we get into "flavor propaganda", which we'll discuss later. Jeez. Did you every realize there was so much complexity behind being an informed consumer and just ordering a simple beer? Maybe you'll give in and just tell the bartender to pour whatever. Choice is difficult sometimes.
If you really visualize this and take a minute to let this sink in, you'll start to understand how external forces hijack the processor in your mind to manufacture desire through the illusion of choice. However, your health and enjoyment of the beer is not the goal for these external forces, they only want you to purchase. The perfect example is fast food. They know their product sucks, but they know you'll keep buying it, but that doesn't keep them from lying about how delicious it is in their ads. There is far more at play behind the curtain. There is a science behind addicting you to things, this is reinforced by a corporate tax and subsidy system that contorts the free market pushing centralization of production through homogenization and use of chemicals to hide the homogenization, and simply because there is more than one option, they make you feel like you have choice. This, in a nutshell, is how the illusion of choice works in the free market. It's not about what YOU want. The producer manipulates you to think you want what they have. Through this, they deceive Americans into buying products with a list of ingredients that a person would never freely choose to consume. So if you want to order a beer with no shit in it, then you're shit out of luck in America. You could in Germany, but we'll discuss that later.
While you're standing at that bar, you aren't conscious of the fact that your interests are in direct opposition to those of the bar owner's. Capitalists hide this fact with their perfect smiles, but Marx described this in detail. You want the best beer for the cheapest price, and the bar owner wants to sell you the cheapest beer at the highest price you'll pay. It doesn't stop there. The bar owner flips roles in the same situation with the beer distributor, who does the same with maybe another level of distribution, and continues to the brewer, then goes to the brewer versus supplier, supplier to farmer, and even though you'd think it stops there, the farmer has to deal with suppliers of equipment and seeds, and on and on.
Add to this list their auxiliary staff of HR, drivers, managers, brewers, bottle/keg makers, and of course owners, none of them care whether you actually like the beer you're drinking as long as you keep buying more. That's the big driver here.
Did you ever realize that every time you buy a beer, your own capital is partially responsible for creating and sustaining all of these jobs involved? You, my dear beer drinker, are the true job creator. Budweiser can brew all they want, it means nothing without buyers, who are the true engines of capitalism. Instead, you're treated as a rube by suits in a boardroom somewhere.
Capitalist Propaganda tells us the billionaires are job creators, but this is a lie. Jeff Bezos can't drink enough beer to sustain all these jobs. So why do we let him hoard all the money? Wouldn't the economy do better if we spread out Jeff's money so more people could buy more beers and more jobs would be created? According to Socialist Economics, yes. That's actually, quite simply, a Socialist Free Market. Did you even know that existed? The power hungry greedy people who are too lazy for manual labor go to such great lengths to make sure you don't learn it. They want you to think that only Capitalism allows you choice in the market. I'm sure you can guess why they say that.
Capitalism maintains itself by exulting the wealthy who use their economic power to punch down. The only way this system won't fall into fascism and fail is if the consumers start to punch back. Where Marx envisioned the Dictatorship of the Proletariat as they usurped power from the Bourgeoisie, a modern alternative is just teaching people to understand the system we live in, so that we can just start making changes in the way we live and to whom we give our money.
See that? Capitalism and Socialism can get along nicely, so long as the consumers are informed.
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CLASS CONSCIOUSNESS AND THE ALIENATION OF LABOR CAUSING LONELINESS IN SOCIETY
What I described within the previous section is what Marx called "Alienation of Labor". Each step in the process of making your beer is isolated from the others, so no one feels ownership over the end product or a true connection to the consumer, or job creator. Even the bartender selling it is alienated from the profit of their labor in serving the beer, so they only focus on the service aspect of giving you the beer, because that is where they earn their tip. They can't really fix anything about a shitty beer other than to offer you a different brand. The capitalist owner is usually not there. Their only interaction is setting the rules for everyone in the bar to follow, and pay themselves more than everyone who has to follow those rules. This is part of the conflict between the classes. I'm not saying it's right or wrong, I'm just pointing it out. The bar owner themself has to spend money on propaganda to attract customers that could be spent in other places, so has to find ways to cut costs. Unfortunately, they buy cheaper beer...and this is why you end up with IPAs. No one is connected to the products, so they only look at prices and find the cheapest, passable product. This is the race to the bottom of Capitalism.
Compare this to when brewpubs were a new thing. The brewer would come out and talk to you about the beer, you would give feedback that could effect future batches and it connected everyone to each other through commerce. It makes business "social" and I think nearly everyone enjoys that, but it is losing out in competition with chain breweries that enforce isolation and make cookie cutter propaganda and cookie cutter business models so they can turn owners into managers and suck all the profit back their corporate headquarters and offshore accounts. They kill the experience and make everything transactional. And all the kitsch they hang around their cookie cutter chain bar is just to hide the fact that no one in that place cares about anything other than not getting fired. Everyone is effectually alienated from everyone else. It's worth a read to check out this page on Marx's Theory of Alienation.
This alienation is the root of a lot of misery in society. Humans are communal animals forced to live in a society of individuality and alienation. As they mope around, they seek an escape. And that is why advertising is so nefarious. It seeks to manipulate you in that state. Imagine driving home from your alienating job to you empty home, but looking up and see a billboard with bunch of actors laughing and drinking beer. They take pictures that make these actors look like friends. It's just for show. They aren't selling beer to those laughing people in the picture. They're tempting lonely people to drown their sorrows. Capitalist Propaganda is used so your brain doesn't understand what it wants. It wants friends, then sees the words Bud Light. So when the bartenders asks...Make it a Bud Light. Look at how much money they spend to manipulate and capitalize on people's suffering.
Propaganda in Communist countries is controlled by the government, so it's clear who the enemy of your freedom is. Capitalist Propaganda hides behind the layers of complexity of the same economy you rely on to survive, so you never know what's propaganda or where it's coming from. Marketers find every way imaginable to get their disinformation in front of your eyes, even enlisting your friends on Facebook in annoying MLM schemes. Propaganda invaded everything that can be legally monetized. It's in the media, and not just commercials anymore. There's product placement, stories injected into the news, and even movies and social media created an entire industry of "lifestyle propaganda", telling you how to live your life and indulge in overconsumption. It's REALLY hard to get away from Capitalist Propaganda. There is so much money and research behind it and so much depth, even this long post is only barely scratching the surface. I just want to open your eyes to it.
I can't make you see all this. No one can. I can only describe it as best as I can. What you will experience when you understand this is what I call "Economic Enlightenment", similar to what Marx called "Class Consciousness". Once it happened to me, the world looked amazing, and the shitty propagandists selling us false hope all look like clowns in a very odd circus of vanity, despair and mediocrity.
Once I understood this, I saw clearly how we are increasingly trapped in a form of Corporate Slavery, led by seriously ridiculous oligarchs like Mark Zuckerberg, who thinks he's the reincarnation of Augustus Caesar or something. That's why he has that haircut! This is a guy who stole a company and hired "screen psychologists" from Las Vegas to get you hooked on Facebook the same as casinos do with slot machines. He wants to be the funnel for propaganda throughout the world. He wants to be the kingmaker, decide what people buy, who they like, what views they hold. He can only do this because so many companies spend so much money to put their propaganda on that platform. They can only have this much money because the free market is not actually free. It's bought and paid for on platforms like Facebook and Amazon. The money that was supposed to "trickle down" is instead being spent on Capitalist Propaganda on these platforms, to get the proletariate to trickle their money up through endless, nonsensical online purchasing and local businesses who send the town's money to people who can't do anything with it but buy up properties that increase your rent and cost of living.
When people get drunk on the power of propaganda, they forget the lessons of the past. Propagandists always fall prey to their own delusions over time. In reality, your life is better without Facebook. There isn't anything on there that is healthy. Even if you just want to talk to a few friends, you are going to fall for the propaganda there. You can't help it. And if your bar advertises on Facebook, just think, that money could've gone into purchasing higher quality beer then sold at the same price, instead of going to Mark Zuckerberg so he can drop $30 million to buy the houses around him so no one can spy on him while he spies on you. You really gotta watch out for a guy who combines spying and propaganda all into a single app and thinks he's going to bring 200 years of peace to America. History is littered with knuckleheads like that. It's best to get off Facebook and encourage everyone else to do the same. Zuck only wants to lead himself to the Promised Land, and he's using your ignorance to fuel his own delusions by deluding you into thinking you want what he has to offer.
Let's get back to beer.
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IPAs AND THE FREE MARKET VS THE RACE TO THE BOTTOM
I like beer. When I worked in Germany, it was easy to walk into a bar and, like Farva, just order a liter o' beer. Often, there would only be two choices, light color or dark. As a matter of fact, even at the most famous beer festival in the world, Oktoberfest, people mostly drink the same standard type of beer, and no one complains about the lack of choice. It's quite easy. You can order with one finger. No need to see a menu or ask what's in it. It's simply beer. This worked for centuries. Consumers are fine with it. Prost! Have you ever shared a story like this and people say, "Oh, that would never work in America. Americans want choice." Yeah. Because we are flooded with Capitalist Propaganda.
So if consumer choice isn't pushing for a selection, why would a free market call for it? Imagine there are two bars and one of those bars says "30 beers on tap" and the other doesn't. You're more likely to choose it, and the other bar will have to compete in some way, often by copying. This forms trends, and people mistake this for something customers wanted. Trends are always marketing. Don't believe me? What happened to fidget spinners? So now you have a bunch of beers that no one asked for, yet will now demand. Competition creates more Capitalist Propaganda to create demand for something you never even wanted, but makes you think you do. And that's the best propaganda. You think you are thinking for yourself. This is the fallacy of consumer choice.
If you want to understand just how important that last paragraph is, consider this, "consumer choice" is the same propaganda they used to get you to carry around a device that spies on you 24/7 and sends that data to people you don't know, and you can't stop it, can you? You chose that. You wanted it. Not only that, but you paid $1,000 for the device to opt into their spying program, for the privilege of being mind controlled by the propaganda their AI selects for you. Did you read the Terms of Service? As bad as you may have thought Communist Propaganda was, Capitalist Propaganda is far better, and far stealthier. You believe you have freedom of choice. But your only choice is usually take it, or leave it. Oh, you need it for work? Maybe find a different job. Or just succumb to mass surveillance, and next year, you can drop another grand on a device with a marginally better camera.
There is a way to free yourself. You just have to understand the nature of propaganda. It took me a while, but I eventually broke free. Under Socialism, there would be laws against the exploitation of consumers. Capitalist Propaganda tells you that this takes away your freedom. This is a lie. Regulations give you the freedom to not have to worry whether the beer you're drinking has poison in it.
Germany has a lot of regulations on beer. It has the Reinheitsgebot (purity order), a law passed in 1516 that states that beer can only consist of water, hops and barley. Note, this is a different use of the word "purity" from earlier, as beer is itself a mixture of things. Historically there have also been regulations where beer could only be sold regionally, so no matter what part of Germany you were in, you only got a certain brand of beer at the bar, but it didn't matter because they all had the same ingredients. They could make wheat beers or unfiltered, but they were generally variations of pilsners and lagers. One meaning of the word "Lager" in German is "storage", meaning the beer was brewed in a way that it could be stored, allowing them to brew in bigger batches and store it.
Lagers use a more complex brewing process, so only larger breweries would make them, but this worked because of protected territories. America has a similar system, because each state has its own regulations on alcohol, but this is changing as corporate lawyers fight to homogenize the rules favorable to them, but the consumer loses control. Big brands tend to be lagers as they have general appeal to a wide audience. Did you notice this is the second time I pointed out that corporations create homogeneity? Without regulations, corporations create Fascism. That is why I tell people that we already live in the NWO but corporations rule the world instead of governments. Why do you think so few conspiracy theorists make this connection? Propagandists are paid a lot of money to keep even our small community confused about the reality of what's happening. Now, check out conspiracy and you'll see what I mean. They are spreading propaganda for the NWO over there and don't even know it. I tried to point that out and they finally banned me. Oh well. They'll figure it out in their own time.
In America, in 1978 it became legal to brew beer at home. This is what led to the explosion of new beers in the US decades later. Americans don't have purity laws, so could test new recipes. But people didn't generally like IPAs before, so how did they become so popular that they control 30% of the market? Marketing, of course. Create the market and tell people what they want.
IPA stands for India Pale Ale. It was invented by the British as an easy way to make a beer that they could drink in India. People only drank it out of necessity, as the other beers couldn't make the trip. IPAs are very easy to make and very forgiving, because if you mess it up, it already tasted bad anyway. As people started trying to get into microbrews, they often didn't have the capital to make lagers at small scale, and also wanted a simpler process so they didn't have to hire or train expert brewers, IPAs are cheap and easy to make at smaller scale.
In order to make it drinkable, brewers experimented with many different flavorings. This created a cult following of craft IPAs, where people would drive hours to stand in line for hours to try the newest concoction. The trendy nature of the craft beer world kept people training their palate to adapt to the taste of an IPA, making people start to actually like them. The flavorings made people think they were different, so even if they didn't like it, marketing tactics kept people coming back to try the latest blend. Your palate can adapt A LOT. Swedish people love Surströmming, but watch this video of Americans trying it for the first time. They tried to get me to eat it several times, but I would rather sit in a sauna until Tuesday to avoid smelling it while watching them eat it. It really smells that bad.
IPAs enticed people with popular, aromatic ingredients like bananas and pineapple. This is what I call "flavor propaganda". It's not bad in and of itself, but it can be easily misused to cover issues with quality or hide the taste of preservatives. Since we don'e have laws like Germany, you're left to rely on the knowledge and honesty of the bartender to find out. They don't make this info readily available, which is another form of Disinformation.
So if you think you actually like IPAs, just remember, you are just like a Swede eating rotten fish. A lot of propaganda went in to making IPAs popular, but it's the cheapest, easiest product to make that can be sold at the highest price, so they become popular. This is what business students call a business plan. To overcome the bad taste, IPAs were marketed as "classy" to shame you if you choose the more expensive to produce and more appealing pilsners and lagers, which were given a bad name due to being associated with major brands like Bud Light. This makes it harder to market microbrew lagers, which can only fetch a certain price due to association. And this is what is referred to as the "race to the bottom" in Capitalism.
Instead of trying to innovate ways to produce the beers you want, they just figure out how to get you to pay more for an inferior product, just like they do with BBQ. They make you think you want it. From this you can understand why "food" is full of junk that you wouldn't feed your dog. Whatever legal poison helps cheapen the product is considered "smart business", another propaganda term designed to hide the reality of doing immoral and harmful things to other humans for profit. If you make money on it, it's good. As if there aren't better choices we could come up with if there truly were a free market with an informed consumer.
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STRENGTHEN THE FREE MARKET BY BEING AN INFORMED CONSUMER
We don't need a Communist Revolution to make positive changes, so take off your ski masks and put your Antifa flags down. I like microbrew culture and still enjoy IPAs, but understanding the marketplace is how I do my part as an informed consumer and job creator to help create the world that I want to live in. I encourage you to do the same. Vote with your dollars. Don't let the Zuck-type sociopathic, corporate people in a distant land decide what you consume by looking at ads on his platform. Visit local breweries and talk to the brewmaster. Don't reinforce alienation from labor. Connect with the people who make the things you buy. Support independent entrepreneurship. These are the paths to a brighter future where we share in the abundance of wealth.
Discover Economic Enlightenment for yourself and realize that We The People are ultimately in control. Wealth inequality is greater than it was in France before the French Revolution. Don't let this train take us into the depths where another Lenin will arise and spend the night shooting people.
How you choose to spend your money today is what decides what will become the society of tomorrow. And remember, you always have the choice to buy nothing at all. I never saw a billboard that said that.
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LET THEM DRINK BEER!
I hope this gave you a glimpse behind the curtain of Capitalist Propaganda. Propaganda isn't just political, it has invaded everything and it's at full blast right now. I hope you can piece together how Capitalist Propaganda is actually designed to make you subservient by controlling what you want so they can maximize their own profit and teach you to accept whatever they offer, the homogenization of choice. However, your life is your own and you should remain in control of all aspects of it, including your desires.
Richard Wolff is an economist who studied at three elite universities in America and discusses how he was not able to even learn about Socialist Economics in the ivory tower, even though Capitalist Propaganda calls universities leftist. He found no department in America that is even willing to teach it or study it. Capitalist Propaganda censors these ideas, especially at the university. People in power don't want the serfs to learn about themselves. Check him out on YouTube. You'll realize that unchecked Capitalism leads to Fascism and Slavery, which is why they want to get rid of the minimum wage, so that we can return to sharecropping which is already increasingly happening in America under different names, like "student debt", "mortgages" and "insurance". Don't you think it's odd that a person has to go into debt so they can generate profits for corporations who really ought to be paying for this education themselves? If you have to go into debt before they'll hire you, it's much easier to negotiate against you.
If you want to see other examples of propaganda, check out this random tweet from one of America's Top Capitalist Propagandists. These are very odd pictures, and the only thing I can see in them is that they must be promoting those outfits, likely the blue dress, maybe those men's outfits as well. One thing you know is that she didn't become a billionaire by letting any single opportunity to enrich herself at the expense of others pass her by. I didn't look it up, but I am certain they sell that blue dress, or whoever does paid her to post this.
That's the main reason celebrities use social media. It's marketing. Their whole schtick is to sell garments made in a sweatshop in a foreign country by people who can't even afford a beer to Americans who are facing bankruptcy and homelessness themselves.
Read the replies of the tweet. These people have influence that vastly outsizes their understanding of their impact on the world. There are guillotines in the comments. There usually are. I'm seeing them a lot lately.
This type of propaganda is everywhere. And it's destroying America. Just like propaganda led to the demise of Nazi Germany, we could be looking at the same thing, but worse. It could start off as famine.
If you're having trouble deciding between the beers you are being offered, it's probably because you don't want anything at all, in which case the proper choice is: nothing. Or, try tap water. Maybe you're just thirsty. Now ask yourself, when you envisioned yourself at a bar, did you ever think to order water instead? Did you entertain the idea that you didn't even want a beer. That's the power of suggestion.
What if the rest of the world just cut America off from the means of production outsourced to areas with cheap labor? We would have our own famine and likely war. And if we have a revolution here, with the masses in the country being so disinformed about everything and not having any sort of class consciousness at the moment and instead stuck in alienation, the leader that rises here will likely lead to something horrifying. And we censor ourselves from pointing out the simple fact, that the only way America will survive is to tax the deluded royalty like Kim and Mark back to reality, so they can't indulge their reckless, childish delusions by selling off the very fabric of our nation to the highest bidder.
That doesn't make me a Socialist, that just makes me honest.
Enjoy your beer!
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Thanks for reading and I hope I helped you understand how you can empower yourself. I'm excited about the one I wrote for Election Day tomorrow to keep our NOPOL spirits up while all the politics clouds the airwaves. Cheers!

Hey everyone. Warning this is a massive post, but im sure that's normal here!
Decided to do an early mock and prospect analysis. I operate a 49ers blog and Slack server, and had done this with them, but I decided to share it here. fortheniners.com is my website if you want to check it out for more stuff, but it's mostly 49ers oriented. Give me some feedback, would love to hear it from you guys.
I created a custom order based on the rest of the season and i simulated the rest. Some picks might be switched in the 2nd round and 3rd due to the reordering of picks, but mostly it should be OK. I felt this order fit how I think the NFL will shake out by the end of season. I can't get the picks to number for some reason correctly.

Positional Rankings

QB:

1. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
2. Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
3. Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
4. Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
5. Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
6. Kyle Trask, QB, Florida
7. D’Eriq King, QB, Miami
8. Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
9. Kellen Mond, QB, Texas A&M
10. Brock Purdy, QB, Iowa State

RB:

1. Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
2. Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
3. Kylin Hill, RB, Mississippi State
4. Chuba Hubbard, RB, Oklahoma State
5. Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Memphis

TE:

1. Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
2. Pat Friermuth, TE, Penn State
3. Brevin Jordan, TE, Miami
4. Hunter Long, TE, Iowa State
5. Grant Calcaterra, TE, Oklahoma

WR:

1. Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
2. Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
3. Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama
4. Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
5. Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue

OT:

1. Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
2. Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama
3. Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas
4. Jackson Carman, OT, Clemson
5. Daniel Faalele, OT, Minnesota

OG/OC:

1. Wyatt Davis, OG, Ohio State
2. Creed Humphrey, OC, Oklahoma
3. Trey Smith, OG, Tennessee
4. Deonte Brown, OG, Alabama
5. Josh Myers, OG, Ohio State

DT:

1. Marvin Wilson, DT, Florida State
2. Jay Tufele, DT, USC
3. Jaylen Twyman, DT, Pittsburgh
4. Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
5. Tyler Shelvin, DT, LSU

DE:

1. Gregory Rousseau, DE, Miami
2. Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
3. Quincy Roche, DE, Miami
4. Carlos Basham Jr, DE, Wake Forest
5. Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan

LB:

1. Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
2. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
3. Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama
4. Cameron McGrone, LB, Michigan
5. Chazz Surratt, LB, North Carolina

CB:

1. Patrick Surtain Jr, CB, Alabama
2. Caleb Farley, CB, Virgina
3. Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State
4. Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
5. Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

S:

1. Jevon Holland, FS, Oregon
2. Paris Ford, SS, Pittsburgh
3. Hamsah Nasirlideen, SS, Florida State
4. Caden Sterns, FS, Texas
5. Andre Cisco, S, Syracuse

3 ROUND MOCK

1st Round

NYJ - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

• Maybe the best QB prospect… ever. Lawrence brings what the Jets have lacked for a very long time. “It”. Lawrence is almost a flawless QB prospect, complete with elite physical tools, mental tools, experience in big games, and the football IQ to be one of the best QBs ever.

JAX - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

• Make no mistake. Justin Fields is not a consolation prize. The Ohio State product is one of the best QB prospects in recent memory as well, with exceptional arm talent, elite ability to make throws on the run, athleticism, leadership, and good decision making. Gifted with a strong arm and a very good deep ball, he will do well on a team that can build around him. He’s also part of the new generation of mobile QBs - Fields is expected to run in the 4.4s.

WAS - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

• Wilson is an interesting prospect. The eye-test shows a mega-talented QB with a knack for big plays, but reading in between the lines, his prospects become murky. Playing against a low level of competition, Wilson has never been truly under pressure from a pass rush during a game. Regardless, Wilson might be the most naturally gifted playmaker in this class - his ability to make throws on the run and extend plays is reminiscent of Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and more, and his arm talent fits that category. One year wonder, sure, but Wilson can be a superstar.

NYG - Gregory Rousseau, DE, Miami

• Passing on the best tackle prospect in recent memory is probably a bad idea. Unfortunately, Dave Gettleman has a penchant for that. Rousseau is a very raw albeit extremely talented pass rusher from Miami. Despite being underdeveloped as a pass rusher, his physical gifts alone made him a top pass rusher last season, trailing only Chase Young as the best pass rusher in college. The Giants add another big man to a talented DL, along with Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence. Rousseau is oozing with potential, and with his length, burst, and strength, can become a force that will terrorize the NFC East. Rousseau is going to test very well at the combine as well.

CIN - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

• Joe Burrow is screaming for joy. Sewell is the best OT prospect, arguably since Joe Thomas, or Trent Williams - he has everything. This is almost a cant-miss pick for Cincinatti, and it gives them two young, bookend tackles in Sewell and 2019 1st round pick Jonah Williams to protect the Heisman award winning QB.

DAL - Patrick Surtain Jr, CB, Alabama

• Dallas is not as bad as this pick slot indicates, but regardless, they pick due to their injury concerns. Drafting on the defense has to be the priority here, and why not reunite Surtain Jr with his former Alabama teammate, and fellow DB in Trevon Diggs? It fills a need and is arguably the BPA at this spot.

LAC - Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama

• While they missed out on Sewell, longtime blindside protector for Justin Herbert, Leatherwood is a great prospect in his own right. A well rounded OL with experience in a tough conference like the SEC, Leatherwood is a stalwart that can start at guard or tackle, giving the Chargers a piece they can put anywhere on the line to protect Herbert, and he is NFL-ready on Day 1.

DET - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

• Passing on Micah Parsons! How? Last time they picked a LB in the first round, it was Jarrad Davis, and they were burned, badly. Instead, they opt for the explosive WR out of Alabama, marking 3 straight picks from Tuscaloosa. Waddle is a game-breaker, stirring up comparisons to Tyreek Hill - and rightfully so. His speed is incredible, and his hands and route running are right up there as well, and he brings rare instincts and elusiveness. Waddle was the best WR in college before getting injured this season. Waddle adds the last piece to the Detroit offense, giving them a great group around Matthew Stafford who is entering the twilight of his career - with Waddle, Golladay, Jones Jr, Swift, and Hockenson, the Lions have the makings of a very good offense.

MIA - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

• Brian Flores would sprint to the podium to pick up Parsons if this was the scenario. The former LB coach grabs one of the most gifted LB prospects in a long time, and he fits the Dolphins at one of their biggest positions of need, with Raekwon McMillan gone. Parsons forms a fearsome LB duo next to Jerome Baker, and brings rare instincts, speed, and physicality to Miami.

DEN - Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas

• Denver was hoping that Parsons would fall one more pick, but alas, they have to settle. Cosmi is one of the most physically talented OTs in the draft, and although he is raw, he’s got plenty of ability and potential. John Elway grabs his hopeful franchise LT to protect Drew Lock.

ATL - Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan

• One of the fastest risers in the draft, Paye is physically dominant as an EDGE rusher and has the production to back it up. Atlanta could have taken a QB here, but considering that they have Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley both in their primes at the moment, they decide to stick with Matt Ryan - for the short term, instead of spending a massive asset on a rookie QB and waiting on him. Paye can become one of the best DL in the league, and replaces Takkarist McKinley.

MIN - Wyatt Davis, IOL, Ohio State

• Another team that could have taken a QB - Minnesota passes on the hometown kid, Lance, in favor for an interior lineman. While QB would be ideal here, Kirk Cousins’ contract is a behemoth, and it does not afford the Vikings a real opportunity to get off that contract - Minnesota would be better off shoring up the rest of their team, and looking for a new QB in the future, while sticking with Cousins short-term.

SF - Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

• The Garoppolo era is over - and the new era of Trey Lance begins in San Francisco. Lance is the only QB of the “big four” who exclusively works in a pro-style offense, and under center. His big arm, mobility, and IQ on the football field will be a welcome sight for 49ers fans who have seen none of those under the last couple years with Garoppolo at the helm. Lance, although in a weak conference, has showcased both elite ability as a pocket passer and a runner, with exceptional touch on deep balls. He can stand in the pocket, deliver while taking a hit, and Kyle Shanahan will like all of that. Great decision maker, and he limits turnovers.

NE - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

• Bill Belichick misses out on the last remaining big QB. He instead opts for the premier offensive weapon in the class, Kyle Pitts. Pitts is in the running for the Heisman. As a TE. Yeah. Belichick adds Pitts to a weakened Patriots offense in desperate need for a big weapon like Pitts, and he steps into the 6 foot 6 inch, 265 pound gap left by Rob Gronkowski in Foxborough.

CAR - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech

• With Teddy playing very well, Carolina likely opts to reinforce their defense, after doing so already last season. Their offense is all but set, with stars like McCaffrey, DJ Moore, and Curtis Samuel already in the mix - but the biggest problem is the defense. While they could go LB to replace Kuechly, why not provide one more big time player in the secondary. With Donte Jackson, Caleb Farley, Jeremy Chinn, and more, Carolina has the makings of a great defense.

LV - Marvin Wilson, IDL, Florida State

• They will go DL and the BPA in that case is FSU’s Marvin Wilson. The big man has been one of the best interior DL in college for a very long time and will continue to do so in Vegas, and provides a physical presence next to Maurice Hurst, Clelin Ferrell, and Maxx Crosby. This is a reach, but the Raiders bet that Wilson can recapture his previous level of play in an NFL program.

CLE - Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama

• Moses, physically, is one of the most talented LB prospects in the draft. A thumper at LB, Moses has seen everything coming from the long list of star Alabama LBs in recent years - but there are question marks. Before his ACL injury, Moses was supposed to go top 10, but after, his play level, and instincts have declined and he looks a step slow. Still, Cleveland opts to grab Moses and place him next to Mack Wilson, giving the Cleveland defense the leader and MIKE LB they need and that they had lost in Joe Schobert.

JAX - Pat Friermuth, TE, Penn State

• Friermuth has drawn Gronk comparisons as a big, bulky target over the middle with blocking capability and red-zone dominance. While he may never reach that level, this is a no-brainer at 18 - Jacksonville gets Justin Fields his safety blanket for the next 5 years or more, and fills one of their biggest needs on the offensive end of the ball.

PHI - JaMarr Chase, WR, LSU

• Philly fans are likely screaming in joy. Arguably the best WR in the draft drops all the way to 19, and right into the lap of Doug Peterson. Carson Wentz finally gets his #1 WR, and it’s a good one. Next to Jalen Reagor, Chase forms a lethal duo and both complement each other perfectly. He has everything a WR needs, and although he is not exceptionally fast, his hands, route running, ball skills, and physicality more than make up for it. He drops partly due to his speed not being amazing and recency bias favoring Jaylen Waddle.

TEN - Jay Tufele, DT, USC

• Tufele is a gifted defensive tackle - with good athleticism, technique, and all-around ability, and young as well, he is nowhere near his ceiling both as a pass rusher and run defender. He can be a 3 down player and can start day one, and for a contender like Tennessee, that makes perfect sense. They shore up the DL again, with three pieces set in stone - Harold Landry, Jeffery Simmons, and now, Tufele.

MIA - Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama

• With Preston Williams, DeVante Parker, and Jakeem Grant, the Dolphins have a good WR corps. But they need that final piece, the #1 - and Smith is exactly that. Tua gets his favorite target back, as Smith follows in the footsteps of the Alabama route-runners before him in Jerry Jeudy, Calvin Ridley, and Amari Cooper. He is thin, but strong at the same time, showcasing good speed, elite route running, elusiveness, and hands, giving Tua the target he needs.

CHI - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

• The SAVIOR! The Trubisky saga is over, and Nick Foles time is short lived in Chicago as well. Chicago opts for Mac Jones, the signal caller from Alabama. Jones is an experienced QB - but the sample size of him playing well is small. Armed with an elite deep ball, a good arm, and functional mobility, Jones works in a pro-style system and is one of the few QBs that could start Day 1 in the NFL. With great decision making and ability to read the field, while playing tough defenses in the SEC - Jones opens up the entire playbook for Chicago because he can throw to any part of the field. They could take Kyle Trask, but instead opt for the higher ceiling in Mac Jones.

NO - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

• A WR would also be a fit here next to Michael Thomas, but with Mac Jones gone, the Saints opt to add another LB next to the aging DeMario Davis and questionable Kwon Alexander. J.O.K. is a talented LB who can lineup at anywhere from MIKE, to S, to OLB, and do it at a high level. Great in coverage, and can play against TEs and occasionally WRs in the slot. He’s a defensive weapon for Sean Payton.

BUF - Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State

• Tre White gets a partner in crime. Wade falls all the way to 24, where Sean McDermott picks up the best fit at corner for his scheme. Wade is exceptional both in press and in zone, and is an explosive and fast athlete with some swagger when tackling. He can work both outside or in the slot, and while he has some issues against taller and bigger WRs, it’s nothing that cannot be ironed out. The Bills form an elite, top 3 defense with Wade in the fold.

IND - Jevon Holland, S, Oregon

• A QB could make sense here, but Trask once again falls as Indianpolis decides to stick with one of the three in Rivers, Brissett, or the Uber-talented rookie in Jacob Eason. Instead, they grab the best safety in the class in Jevon Holland. Holland is a do-it-all safety with great coverage ability, and a lot of range - and he gives the Colts a player they can plug and play at either FS or SS. Malik Hooker simply has not worked out for the Colts due to health reasons, so the Colts grab a long term starter at S.

ARI - Creed Humphrey, IOL, Oklahoma

• Kyler Murray gets his old friend from Oklahoma. Humphrey is a plug-and-play center or guard prospect in the NFL and gives Murray some much needed familiarity - and at a big position of need. Arizona’s biggest focus should be protecting Murray, and Humphrey is a strong, technical stalwart in the interior, which is key against the NFC West’s talent like Aaron Donald, Arik Armstead, Nick Bosa, and more.

GB - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue

• Aaron Rodgers will riot if this pick is not another weapon. Despite the defensive short comings for the Packers, they have to take WR here - it’s holding back their offense. They opt for Rondale Moore, the explosive WR from Purdue. Moore is a game-changer with the ball in his hands, a YAC machine who will destroy you in the open field. And that is a perfect compliment to Davante Adams, as Moore can lineup anywhere, from RB, to the SLOT, to outside WR. Aaron Rodgers has clearly missed Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb - but Moore brings what Cobb also brought to the table.

BAL - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota

• The speed demon in Marquise Brown is already there - but the Ravens need a true #1. Bateman brings a physical, big presence at WR, something Lamar has not had since college, and something he really needs. Bateman’s sure hands, body control, contested catch ability, and explosiveness is exactly what the Ravens need - as the final piece in a juggernaut of an offense being created. With Mark Andrews, JK Dobbins, Marquise Brown, Jackson, and now Bateman in the fold, Jackson’s full ability as a passer can be unleashed and the Ravens offense with that.

TB - Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama

• When in doubt, take the Bama player. In all seriousness, there are plenty of options the Buccaneers can go with here - but clearly, reinforcing the DL is the most popular way of doing so. Barmore next to Vita Vea gives the Buccaneers a great duo, with Barmore a perfect candidate to play the 3-tech. He’s raw but plenty of growing room.

PIT - Kyle Trask, QB, Florida

• Trask finally comes off the board, and to arguably the perfect team. Trask is not ready to start in the NFL day one - but he can be that guy in the future. Although he does not possess an amazing arm, he has all the intangibles, accuracy, and decision making to become the QBOTF in Pittsburgh. Trask’s biggest issue is his footwork - if he can fix that, everything else will fall into place. He possesses the physical attributes to be a star, tall, built strong, and he is fearless in the pocket. The throwing motion is good, but the overall mechanics in combination with the footwork need improvement. Fortunately, he will have time to do so under Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh.

KC - Carlos Basham, DE, Wake Forest

• Basically any pick is a luxury pick for Kansas City, but they opt for Basham here. Basham is a sure-thing, he won’t be a superstar, but he will be a very good defensive end. He is strong, big, and possesses both good burst and good technique - and forms a great duo across from Frank Clark.

NYJ - Jackson Carman, OT, Clemson

• While they could take Etienne here, instead of the next pick right after, they take Carman first - for the 5th round option. RBs are usually easy to keep, but that 5th year option if Carman pans out will be massive. The Jets grab Trevor Lawrence two familiar faces back to back, in order to appease their new franchise QB, who may not have been enthusiastic to be drafted by NY.

2nd round:

NYJ - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson

• Jets grab another familiar face, this time in the best RB in the draft. Lawrence feeling at home. Etienne has incredible speed, acceleration, and is a complete RB, being able to play on 3rd down. The Jets get a dynamic weapon, a stark contrast to the slow and steady Le’Veon Bell.

JAX - Trey Smith, OT/OG, Tennessee

• If Justin Fields is going to succeed, the Jaguars need to step it up everywhere. They’ve addressed TE, now they address the OL, with Smith. Rock-solid lineman with versatility, Smith is one of the best pass protectors in the draft.

WAS - Sage Surratt, WR, Wake Forest

• First step in Washington with new management in the fold is building a new culture. Support players - and Surratt is squeaky clean off the field with academic awards and more. But really, this is about football - Surratt is a very good possession WR and fits next to McLaurin well, giving Zach Wilson a big target with soft hands and good speed.

NYG - Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan

• Passing on Sewell hurts - but Mayfield makes up for it. A very high potential player at OT, Mayfield can play at RT or LT, depending on where the Giants shift the struggling Andrew Thomas. Saquon Barkley breathes a sigh of relief.

CIN - Terence Marshall Jr, WR, LSU

• Familiar target? Check. AJ Green is likely out of Cincinnati after this season, and Marshall can perfectly fit in as a height-weight-speed freak with production. Marshall can be the #1 WR in Cincy.

DAL - Caden Sterns, S, Texas

• Strengthening this defense is key - and the next step is at safety. Sterns fits the bill as a playmaking coverage safety who can play in man or zone, helping this Cowboys pass defense take the next step.

LAC - Walker Little, OT, Stanford

• Two tackles in a row? With a QB like Herbert, you need it. With Trai Turner, Leatherwood, Little, and Lamp on the OL, Herbert will have good protection and for a long time with two new bookend tackles. Little is a great fit at RT, with Leatherwood slotting on the left. Good technique, great size, and great length.

DET - Cameron McGrone, LB, Michigan

• Taking the Ann Arbor product, McGrone has sky-high potential as a three down LB with sideline to sideline speed. Detroit gets the chosen one at their biggest need.

MIA - Quincy Roche, DE, Miami

• Besides the Miami connection, this is a no-brainer. Roche drops to the 2nd, where Brian Flores picks him up to reinforce a pass rush in need of a speedy, bendy edge rusher like Roche. Big time pick up, as Miami is nailing the draft.

DEN - Jaylen Twyman, DT, Pittsburgh

• Von Miller and Jurrell Casey should return next season, giving the Broncos a fearsome trio combined with Bradley Chubb. Twyman is the final piece and gives them a longterm solution. An explosive, undersized DL, Twyman is already an elite pass rusher on the interior with room to grow.

ATL - Tyler Shelvin, DT, LSU

• Narrowly missing on Twyman, they settle for Shelvin, the behemoth DT from LSU - a great fit next to Grady Jarrett, Dante Fowler, and now Kwity Paye. Shelvin can swallow up double teams.

JAX - Paris Ford, S, Pittsburgh

• Fields is in the fold, but that does not mean Jacksonville ignores the defense. They get a good safety in Paris Ford, a guy who is always around the ball. With Josh Allen, Chaisson, Myles Jack, CJ Henderson, and now Ford, they have high potential guys on every level of the ball.

SF - Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State

• Dee Ford is likely gone… so the 49ers need a speed rusher, an athletic one for DL coach Kris Kocurek to mold. While very raw, Oweh is a physical freak with speed, a quick first step, strength, and bend. He is not a finished product, and will be limited to pass rush duties in his first years, but once he develops, watch out.

NE - Joseph Ossai, EDGE/LB, Texas

• Bill Belichick runs to the podium for this pick. Home run for NE, as they grab the perfect player they need at LB and the DL - someone who can fill the position that Jamie Collins left years ago. Ossai is very raw but Bill Belichick will savor getting a LB that he can mold in whatever way he wants for his defense. This is a perfect fit.

CAR - Jabril Cox, LB, LSU

• A smart, fast and instinctive LB, Cox will not replace Luke Kuechly, but he can help. Next to Shaq Thompson, the Panthers have filled a lot of their holes already - and it’s still the 2nd round.

LV - Andre Cisco, S, Syracuse

• Cisco gives the Raiders a nice, young, and talented safety duo in their secondary with Abram as well. Raiders continue to strengthen the defense. Cisco is coming off a torn ACL but is talented and was a 1st round prospect, arguably, until his injury.

CLE - Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC

• Odell Beckham Jr is likely done - and either way, Baker Mayfield needs a new target, preferable one that can play in the slot or outside. St. Brown has great hands, great route running, and good speed. Cleveland has a big need at EDGE, but they opt to get their young QB one more target in hopes of a breakout season.

LAR - Josh Myers, OG, Ohio State

• They could take a LB here, but Myers dropping this low is a no-brainer. The Rams add another athletic and polished OL. Myers is a good fit for the zone scheme that Sean McVay runs, and fill one of their most pressing needs. Jared Goff is not Jared Goff under pressure - this is the way to keep this offense chugging… investing in the OL, especially in the brutal NFC West.

PHI - Hamsah Nasirlideen, LB/S, Florida State

• Perfect fit. Nasirlideen can play at safety or LB, and is physically incredible. Knack for forcing turnovers and he is a sure tackler, and although he has some coverage issues, he is still good vs. TEs and slot WRs at times. Philly gets a tone-setter at LB, their biggest need, or at S, arguably the 2nd biggest need.

TEN - Deonte Brown, OG, Alabama

• The battle is won in the trenches. The Titans don’t have many needs, but strengthening the OL is always a good idea.

MIA - Daniel Faalele, OT, Minnesota

• Miami is nailing the draft. Faalele is the most physically impressive prospect in this class, with great athleticism despite being 6 foot 9 inches and nearly 400 pounds. He’s a freak, and a perfect candidate to play at RT and protect Tua Tagovailoa’s blind side. Tua is very happy right now!

CHI - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OG, USC

• Grabbing another athletic, and technically sound OL - Vera-Tucker fits Chicago’s needs well, especially with long-time starter Kyle Long retired.

NO - Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida

• New Orleans needs a true #2 WR next to Michael Thomas, and Emmanuel Sanders is the short-term for that. Toney is the long-term solution. Explosive YAC threat, Toney is a perfect fit in the West Coast offense that Sean Payton runs, and is seemingly uncatchable in the open field - and he comes with versatility, as a former QB; we know Sean Payton likes that.

BUF - Patrick Jones II, DE, Pittsburgh

• The Bills need more from their DL to take their defense to the next level. Jerry Hughes is already 32, and by taking Jones, an explosive pass rusher with good technique and great size. Across from AJ Epenesa, Buffalo has two good EDGE rushers to anchor a DL and give Ed Oliver some help.

IND - Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan

• He does not have very much burst or an elite first step, but Hutchinson’s pursuit ability, motor, and strength are up there with the best. He’s inexperienced but he has a good assortment of pass rush moves, and offers versatility too - he is 280 pounds. IND gets a guy that they can play 3-4 DE, 4-3 DE, the three tech, or even 3-4 OLB if needed.

ARI - Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia

• Crazy talented athlete, Campbell is raw but he has a ton of potential. Great hips, great recovery speed, and he can run with anyone. Good size, he’s a player that can play in most if not all schemes, with the ability to play bump and run, press, zone, or man.

GB - Brevin Jordan, TE, Miami

• Adding two explosive weapons to an offense that already had Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams is stupid. That’s exactly what happens here - Green Bay grabs their TE of the future, in Jordan. Jordan is a gifted athlete with a lot of speed and explosiveness, built in the molds of the new wave of TEs like George Kittle, Noah Fant, and more. Green Bay now has weapons everywhere and are poised for the short-term with Rodgers, and the long term with Love.

BAL - Chazz Surratt, LB, North Carolina

• They took Patrick Queen last year, but they still need one more guy on that defense. While they have a pressing need at safety, Surratt’s potential is too much to pass up. Super talented with instincts, Surratt is a former QB and inexperienced, yet he has shown massive ability. High character and the leader the Ravens need on defense.

TB - Alec Lindstrom, OG, Boston College

• Always pick the OL when unsure. Lindstrom is polished and although he does not possess a high ceiling, he should be a good starter in the NFL for a long time. Protect Brady.

PIT - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

• Joe Haden is aging and Pittsburgh needs a boost of youth in the secondary to match Minkah Fitzpatrick. Horn has been one of the breakout stars this college season, and it’s a wonder he even dropped this far.

KC - Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota State

• LDT’s status is unclear beyond this season, and besides, the Chiefs have needed a boost in the OL for a while. This is a trend - contending teams without weaknesses will almost always opt to strengthen the trenches.

SEA - Joe Tryon, DE, Washington

• Tryon is far from a finished product but would represent the most hope Seattle has had at pass rush in a very long time. He is big, lengthy, has good burst, and good hand placement, and has a very high ceiling. The UW product stays in Seattle.

3rd round:

NYJ - Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia

• If the CB class was not so stacked this year, Stokes would have had a shot to go in the 1st. Either way, the Jets grab a talented, twitchy corner from Georgia with a knack for forcing turnovers. Stokes can be a #1 CB if developed correctly. Great in press coverage especially.

JAX - Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

• Justin Fields’ favorite target joins him in Jacksonville. He is really polished in everything a WR needs - great route runner, great hands, and he can contort his body to make some tough catches. He is limited physically, that frame is not going to be able to take an NFL season. He is going to have to bulk up, but Fields gets a classic #2 WR who can play in the slot or outside.

WAS - Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

• Scheme-versatile, athletic, physical. He checks most boxes - he needs work on his technique, specifically when he comes out of his stance, but moving him to guard would eliminate that need. He can anchor himself well too.

NYG - Seth Williams, WR, Auburn

• Prototypical X WR that fits well next to Darius Slayton. Williams cannot separate much, but with his hands and body control, is a great possession WR who will consistently make contested catches. Red-zone threat with upside.

CIN - Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia

• Two-down run defender with upside. He’s got a lot of athleticism and improving technique, but outside of the run-game, he can’t do much right now. Good fit, both for Cincinnati’s needs and also scheme.

DAL - Derion Kendrick, CB, Clemson

• Weird prospect. He switched from WR to CB in college, so he is still clearly learning the nuances of being a corner, but you can see what he can be vs. what he is now. Kendrick is not going to wow anyone for a while, but if Dallas can develop him right, he can be very good. Very much a long-term pickup.

LAC - Asante Samuel Jr, CB, Florida State

• He is really good with the play in front of him, classic slot corner. Good acceleration and he is a good tackler. He’s scheme-versatile, and with good hips, he can play off-man and press if needed. Good and easy replacement for Desmond King in the slot for the Chargers, especially with the aging Chris Harris. Samuel can get bullied by bigger WRs so DCs need to be careful with matchups, at least til he can get stronger.

DET - Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

• Quandre Diggs being traded last season left a gaping hole in their secondary. Moehrig is a very good centerfield type safety with ball hawking ability and really good instincts. He’s got issues tackling, but most deep safeties have the same issues. Big time potential.

HOU - Alaric Jackson, OG, Iowa

• Protecting DeShaun Watson needs to be the goal - Jackson is a good fit for Houston. Strong with good athleticism, Jackson has played at tackle for a long time at Iowa, but his flexibility and length limit him. He will move to guard - but that’s exactly what Houston needs.

DEN - Monty Rice, LB, Georgia

• A tough inside LB with good closing speed and size, Rice is a good candidate as a WILL LB with coverage skills as well. He is a step late on some plays while diagnosing - which along with his size prevents him from playing at midde linebacker.

ATL - D’Eriq King, QB, Miami

• Surprise! Well, not really. I expect Atlanta to hire a modern OC, and that means a modern QB is needed. King fits the bill as a dual-threat QB with a great arm. I really like his feel for the game, his arm talent, his improving accuracy, and anticipation, and the natural ability to extend plays and make throws on the run or scramble is great too. King may be undersized, but he makes up for it with his elusiveness and build. Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson succeeded, King can as well. Why not pick Trey Lance in the 1st? No matter what, the QB they pick will be a project. It would be better to invest in other positions early, and still grab the QB of the future late. He’s not Quinton Flowers, or JT Barrett - he’s much more. Great anticipation, strong arm, and he makes plays.

MIN - Azeez Ojulari, DE, Georgia

• Really good bend and speed off the EDGE. He is another raw EDGE rusher, which is plentiful in this draft - but Minnesota needs a guy they can develop, just as they did with Danielle Hunter.

WAS - Grant Calcaterra, TE, Oklahoma

• Weapons, weapons, weapons. Wilson needs all he can get, and now he has two talented WRs in Surratt and McLaurin, and Calcaterra joins that group. There are massive injury concerns with Calcaterra - he retired due to concussions and then returned earlier this season - but when he was healthy, he was considered a top TE in College Football. This is very much a bet for Washington, but it could pay off massive dividends.

NE - VOIDED by NFL
CAR - Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame

• NFL-ready frame and he’s got really good length. He can hold his own against most pass rushers, speed or power. Athleticism is average though - he is better off in a power-scheme more than anything else.

LV - Cade Mays, OG, Tennessee

• Nasty and strong, especially in the run game. Jon Gruden will love this guy, but he needs to get more disciplined especially with his footwork and stance - when he maintains his leverage, he is elite. Needs to get more polished but the potential is there.

CLE - Richard LeCounte III, S, Georgia

• Size is an issue with LeCounte, but his ball skills and instincts are great, as is his football IQ. He will be able to start Day One in the NFL - and with Grant Delpit at SS, LeCounte is a nice pairing at FS. Browns strengthen the defense again.

LAR - Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri

• Rams biggest need is probably LB - but they wait til the 3rd to grab one. Bolton is a monster in the run-game, super hard hitter and he’s got good instincts to guess the gap and go. He’s limited in the passing game, but once again - he’s got plenty of time and potential to iron that out. Better in zone, as most LBs are.

PHI - Kary Vincent Jr, CB, LSU

• Really good slot corner. Super twitchy with really quick feet - he can mirror anyone in the slot. The problem is with his size - but in general, this guy can play. He needs work on his tackling and hand fighting at the line but as a man-coverage type, Philly can’t get much better at this point in the draft.

TEN - Hunter Long, TE, Boston College

• He’s just good at everything. Not a game-changing playmaker at TE, but he gets the job done and can do anything asked of a TE. Tennessee will love his blocking and good athleticism.

MIA - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

• As if Miami wasn’t already nailing this draft, this puts the cherry on top. Harris in the 3rd is incredible value - he’s physical, fast, elusive, and does everything a RB is supposed to do. Every-down RB. TD machine and he will always fall forward - he’s the alpha they need at RB, and a good compliment to Myles Gaskin. Another familiar face for Tua Tagovailoa.

CHI - Anthony Schwartz, WR, Auburn

• The Bears need that extra #2 WR, Schwartz brings exactly that. Anthony Miller is better off in the slot, and while Allen Robinson is awesome, both Miller and Robinson cannot take the top off a defense like Schwartz can. He’s dangerous with the ball in his hands and is still improving. His frame is very flimsy however, and he’s got some issues blocking - but you can see his role in Matt Nagy’s offense.

CLE - Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington

• They need a space eater next to Myles Garrett. Onwuzurike brings that and more to the table.

BUF - Dazz Newsome, WR, North Carolina

• Gabriel Davis and Stefan Diggs are great, but Buffalo lacks a threat at slot WR - John Brown and Cole Beasley are again. Newsome is explosive, lightning quick, and has very good route running and elusiveness in the open field.

IND - Shaka Toney, DE, Penn State

• Another DE? Justin Houston is aging, and if Indianapolis wants to keep building their defense, this is necessary to give DeForest Buckner some help. Toney is not ready to be an every-down player, but as most Penn State products are - he is gifted as an athlete. He’s got plenty of potential as a pass rusher.

ARI - Darius Stills, DT, West Virginia

• There are questions about his run defense and is not disciplined as a DT should be. He more than makes up for it with his disruptiveness as a pass rusher. Rare get-off for a DT, and his size lends hm and advantage because he is so powerful and fast with good leverage.

GB - Jack Sanborn, LB, Wisconsin

• Hard hitter with ball production tends to work out in the NFL. He’s a fine athlete and is a quick diagnosed of plays, and while his run defense is great, his coverage skills are better. Not often does a LB log multiple interceptions in one season, but Sanborn did just that. Do-it-all LB for the Packers, although he has some limitations.

MIN - Marquez Stevenson, WR, Houston

• Versatile weapon with a ton of speed and elusiveness. The production matches the skillset, and he brings the presence the Vikings need next to Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen for the next couple of years.

TB - Kolby Harvell-Peel, S, Oklahoma State

• He isn’t much of a coverage safety, but Harvell-Peel is a fantastic run defender and tackler at safety. He’s not a liability, but he is not someone you want covering the back-end on third down either way. Harvell-Peel gives Bruce Arians a piece that he can shift anywhere, from LB to SS to slot CB if necessary, and he can get physical in the trenches and hold his own.

PIT - Jeremy Ruckert, TE, Ohio State

• Ruckert is a smooth athlete at TE and a very good blocker too. Despite not having much opportunity at OSU, Ruckert made the most of it - he’s got great hands as well. Pittsburgh grabs the future safety blanket for Kyle Trask… and forms a duo with Eric Ebron.

KC - Paulson Adebo, CB, Stanford

• Reinforcing this defense again. Adebo is a good zone and press corner. He’s got limitations, but he’s still developing and could be very good in the future.

NYJ - Justyn Ross, WR, Clemson

• If you ain’t noticed a trend by now, I don’t know what to say. But really, the Jets know that they aren’t exactly enticing for Lawrence. Making it feel like home for him is very important, both for his development and also for the future. They’ve alienated their defensive savant in Jamal Adams, they can’t have this happen again. Ross is mega-talented, but his neck injury last season caused him to drop from a 1st round prospect to a late 3rd prospect. Regardless, if the Jets can get Denzel Mims, Justyn Ross, Travis Etienne, plus two bookend tackles in Mekhi Becton and Jackson Carman - Trevor Lawrence has something he can work with. Ross is a prototypical #1 WR, with height-weight-speed measurements perfect and the production to back it up.

Order taken from tankathon. Seems like there were a LOT less trades this time.
1 - New York Jets - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson - Another week another loss. The Jets are currently undefeated in the Tank for Trevor sweepstakes, leading the way with a pristine 0-9 record. It’ll be interesting to see how Lawrence plays after his bout with COVID, but realistically, no matter who ends up picking first, the choice should be Lawrence. He’s the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck, and should be the centerpiece for the Jets for the rest of the decade.
2 - Jacksonville Jaguars - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State - The Jaguars manage to pull out a very close loss against the Packers, ensuring that they stay in the coveted second spot position to keep their dreams of a new franchise QB still alive. And although both Minshew and Luton would make great backups and ok starters, neither have the ceiling that Fields has shown off this year in an electric Ohio State offense. There are concerns on how much of his play is from the system and his WR and how much of it is from himself, but I think most people have seen more than enough to crown him the clear second best QB prospect in this class behind Lawrence.
3 - San Diego Chargers (via WFT - Sends 1.05, 3.67, 2022 SDC 2nd for 1.3) - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon - Right now the Chargers plan A-Z should be about protecting Herbert, because he’s looked like an elite QB so far. Penei Sewell is the best QB prospect since Joe Thomas decided to declare out of Wisconsin, and he should be able to man either side of Herbert at an All-Pro level for the next decade.
4 - Dallas Cowboys - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama - The Cowboys defense has been atrocious to say the least. Half their defensive backs are also free agents and who knows how many will return? The only true building block in the secondary currently is the currently injured Trevon Diggs. So here comes another Alabama CB to complete the pair. Surtain II should be an elite cover corner from day 1, someone who can lock down an opponent’s #1 WR and should hopefully help the Cowboys become a playoff contender again once Dak returns.
5 - Washington Football Team(Via SDC) - Trey Lance, QB, NDSU - Haskins is probably done. I dont foresee any sort of happy conclusion to his time in Washington, and thus Ron Riveria is probably going to look to install his own guy at QB. Will it be Trey Lance or the rapidly rising Zach Wilson? Who knows, but I currently think Lance will be the slightly more tantalizing prospect. Trey Lance might not be a near finished product the top 2 QBs are, but he has gobs of potential and has a ceiling that might even surpass Fields or Lawrence. Will Trey Lance end up being Mahomes/Josh Allen or just another big armed bust? That’ll be up to the Washington coaching staff, but he’s a fantastic prospect for Washington to figure out.
6 - Miami (Via Houston Texans) - Jamarr Chase, WR, LSU - Its Tua time in Miami, and although DeVante Parker is the dude in Miami, having 2 alpha receivers is becoming more and more popular. Chase is the best WR prospect in this class, an elite route runner who can also get plenty of yards after the catch. He dominated in 2019 as the clear best WR in the league, and honestly reminds me a bit of Titans star WR AJ Brown as a WR who isnt necessarily the biggest or most athletic, but excels when it comes to situations after the catch. He needs to be a bit better when it comes to his short/med routes, but his ability to separate vertically or snag balls and take it for a home run should be a great boon to the Miami offense.
7 - Cincinnati Bengals - Alex Leatherwood, OT/OG, Alabama - Parsons and Surtain are tempting here, but when you just drafted a franchise QB #1 overall, protecting him should be priority 1, 2, and 3, especially after how many hits Joe Burrow took to begin the year. The Bengals need line help everywhere, especially on the right side, and Leatherwood is a 4 year starter who can excel at both OT and OG. He should be an immediate upgrade to either Bobby Hart or Trey Hopkins/Alex Redmond/whoever the hell starts at RG for the Bengals and hopefully significantly improve the protection of Burrow. Wyatt Davis was also a serious consideration here, but I believe Leatherwood is good enough to where his ability to play RT outweighs the gap in talent.
8 - Chicago Bears (via NYG - Sends 1.16, 3.80, 2022 CHI 1st, 2022 CHI 2nd for 1.08, 2022 NYG 4th) - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU - The Giants incite a bidding war between SF and Chicago, and the Bears end up offering an offer NYG cant refuse. And theres good reason for why Chicago goes all in. They were anemic against a pretty horrid Titans defense and with 3 of the top 4 QB prospects off the board, the Bears bite the bullet. With an aging defense and their Super Bowl window closing fast, they jump up high to draft Zach Wilson. Wilson has been flying up the draft boards recently, torching defenses on his possible Heisman campaign. He’s got great mobility, especially when it comes to extending plays, and solid pocket presence. Most of all, there’s a bit of reckless brilliance that reminds me a little of guys like Stafford, Mahomes and Allen. Its a fine line to balance and Wilson does have his flaws - such as too much aggressiveness and concerns about his shoulder’s durability, but if the Bears can keep Allen Robinson, then I can foresee a very fruitful connection in the future between the two, as well as a chance for Wilson to be the best QB in Bears history (Yes, its that bad).
9 - Carolina Panthers - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State - Micah Parsons is a special linebacker, athletic, versatile, rangy and blah blah blah. Im sure you all have read it before. Micah Parsons is really fucking good. There’s not much else to say here.
10 - Atlanta Falcons - Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami - The Falcons historically have had a type at EDGE, elite athletic EDGE who are still a little raw technique wise. Well, Rousseau fits that type to a T. The potential here is sky high and his punch is elite. If he can develop his this repertoire some more, he could be as scary as someone like Chase Young, who he was able to keep up with in 2019. With both Matt Ryan and Julio Jones aging, Rousseau might be able to revitalize their defense enough to where the Falcons can try to go for one last deep run.
11 - Denver Broncos - Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State - Lock has been unstable but with such an injured Denver team, he probably deserves another season, and Garrett Bolles has actually been playing at a near elite level all season. That leaves one last problem for the Broncos, their secondary. Bryce Callahan has been fantastic all year and I've heard some praise for Michael Ojemudia, but AJ Bouye has been a disappointment, and that's when he’s on the field. Shaun Wade should be able to be that final piece in the Broncos secondary they need. It was close between Farley and Wade, but with the season the Broncos have had, Wade’s ability to stay on the field was the tiebreaker. Of course, that's only a bonus to Wade’s fantastic coverage ability, especially from the slot, and his run defense reminds me of Trae Waynes’s ability to stop the run at corner. With how complex NFL offenses are now, Wade’s ability to be both a slot and outside corner means he can follow a #1 WR wherever they go, which is surely should help him become an elite CB at the next level.
12 - San Francisco 49ers - Caleb Fairley, CB, Virginia Tech - The 49ers have 0 total CBs under contract in 2022. Yes, ZERO. That makes CB a huge huge need for them. Fortunately, Caleb Farley has dropped into their laps. He’s an outstanding press corner, and mirrors opposing receivers so well that he might as well be running their routes. He’s long, physical, and impressively sticky, and should be an elite outside corner for the 49ers. Grabbing Farley would allow for the 49ers to more easily part ways with Sherman or Verrett, as the #1 CB spot should not be an issue for them anymore. Wyatt Davis was considered here, but Shanahan has not historically valued guards highly, mostly focusing on OT and C.
13 - Detroit Lions - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama - There’s been a lot of rumblings about Kenny Golloday’s unhappiness in Detroit, and although I do think they ought to pay him, if they cant come to an agreement and franchise tag him, they’ll likely need a replacement. And thats not even mentioning both Marvin Jones Jr and Danny Amendola are also free agents at the end of this year. That makes WR a pretty big need for the Lions. Enter DeVonta Smith, who’s surpassed his teammate Waddle as the #2 WR on my big board. Any concerns he had last year are all gone now, especially with Waddle out. It’s been the DeVonta showdown at Alabama, punctuated with a 200+ yard 4 TD performance against Mississippi State. Smith has Charmin soft hands and fantastic route running, and most importantly, gets fantastic separation. He’s a bit thin at only 175, but his frame should fill out nicely once he gets to the NFL. Whether he’s the Lions new #1 or a #2, either way he should be an elite weapon for Stafford to play with.
14 - Minnesota Vikings - Wyatt Davis, OG, Ohio State - The Vikings OL has two possible building blocks of the future in Ezra Cleveland and Brian O’Neil as well as an OK starter in Garrett Bradbury, but that leaves two rather large holes on the offensive line. Dakota Dozier’s a free agent at the end of this year, Cleveland might end up moving to OT, Pat Eiflen hasnt shown much to be excited about and I think the only time Vikings fans want to see Dru Samia on the field is if he’s starting for the opponents. Wyatt Davis is the last of the truly elite prospects in this class, an elite guard prospect who will run over anyone in his way and a plug, play and forget guy from Day 1. Count this pick as killing 3 birds with one stone. Helping Cousins, helping Dalvin Cook and the run game, and protecting whoever the Vikings pick as the QB of the future.
15 - New England Patriots - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama - The Patriots receiving corps seems to have 1 saving light right now in Jakobi Myers, but that doesnt mean the rest of the receiving corps isnt absolutely putrid. With no QB really worth the pick here, Waddle is the clear best fit, an electric speed demon who can take the top off of defenses, a player with a great catch radius and the ability to dart to the holes in coverages, and a great kick/punt returner. Adding a burner like Waddle who can stretch the field should only help the Patriots offense and might allow Harry to finally be productive, as he excelled at ASU when paired up with a speed demon as well.
16 - New York Giants (via CHI) - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina - The Giants land an absolute haul, and still managed to grab a fantastic player in Jaycee Horn. A physical aggressive corner who knows how to properly use his size as leverage against opposing WRs, Horn would short up the CB2 position for the Giants, and could become the CB1 in. You want to see him at his best? Watch his game against Auburn and think of the ceiling.
17 - Cleveland Browns - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame - Outside of Zach Wilson, no player has boosted his draft stock as much as JOK has. His ascent reminds me a lot of Devin Bush’s, who also went from a fringe R1-R2 player to a mid first lock. He’s small at 6’1, 215, but utterly explosive and flies around the field in both run stopping and pass coverage. With the Browns LB play this year being pretty horrid after the loss of Joe Schobert, JOK should be able to become the immediate QB of the defense.
18 - Tennessee Titans - Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan - The Titans went up against a Bengals Oline that was starting 3rd stringers and recorded 0 sacks. Thats all I need to say about how terrible the Titans pass rush is. Landry is still pretty promising, but at this point Clowney is neither an answer to the pass rush woes nor is he likely staying long term in Tennessee, and Derick Roberson has had 1 good game against a terrible Bears OL. Kwity Paye could be though, as one of the very few bright spots in a horrid season for Michigan. He is a very strong power rusher who can uses his bull rush well to set the LOS. He’s a tank with fantastic explosiveness and a pretty high ceiling, and his ability to cause problems against the opposing offensive line should be welcome on the Titans defense alongside Harold Landry.
19 - Philadelphia Eagles - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota - Fulgham is a great WR, and Reagor has a ton of potential, but I dont think the Eagles can really pass up on Bateman here. Bateman’s a big play machine, someone who not only runs great routes, but gobbles up YAC once he has the ball. He should be a fantastic addition to the Eagles offense as a compliment with both Fulgham and Reagor.
20 - Arizona Cardinals - Creed Humphrey, C, Oklahoma - Kyler Murray is reunited with his old college center. What a story. Aside from that, the Cardinals zone-blocking scheme puts a heavy emphasis on center play, and Humphrey is the best center in the class. Humphrey should slot into the Cardinals ZBS scheme perfectly. Thats not even mentioning his football smarts or his leadership, both of which would be huge boons for the offense. Humphrey should be a centerpiece in the Cards offensive line for years to come, the Jeff Saturday to Murray’s Peyton Manning.
21 - New York Jets (Via SEA) - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida - With Lawrence on the roster, the Jets need to get him some receiving weapons, and Pitts is easily the best receiving weapon left on the board. He’s an extremely versatile weapon in the way that most modern TEs are with fantastic routes, soft hands, a huge catch radius and an excellent understanding of how to beat zone, able to line up all over and cause issues for the opposing defense. He might not be a WR, but with a very deep WR class in R2 and Pitt’s ability to play everywhere on the field, he’ll be an awesome addition to a pretty terrible Jets offense.
22 - Miami Dolphins - Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas - The Dolphins have added an offensive playmaker with their first pick in Ja’Marr Chase, so its time they add a defensive playmaker with their second first. A quick trigger pass rusher who has plenty of room for improvement, Ossai presents a tantalizing option for Miami as someone who has the ability to become a very dominant pass rusher. He’d be a great fit in the Miami defense, and could grow into the EDGE the Dolphins have lacked since losing Cam Wake and Robert Quinn.
23 - Indianapolis Colts - Terrace Marshall Jr, WR, LSU - T.Y. Hilton is done, Parris Campbell can't seem to stay healthy enough to play, and although MIchael Pittman Jr is good, he still needs a lot more games to prove himself to be the WR1. Its a perfect opportunity for Terrace Marshall Jr to take over here. Marshall has been fantastic at LSU with Chase out - which is more impressive with how bad LSU has been, and he’s got all the physical traits to be an elite WR. He rarely gets caught in press coverage and with his ball skills and frame, excels in contested catch situations. He’ll be a fantastic addition for the Colts offense, and could usher in a new era for the Colts.
24 - Baltimore Ravens - Trey Smith, iOL, Tennessee - With the retirement of Marshall Yanda, the Ravens have had a huge hole at LG that they still haven't been able to fill. And with their offense becoming more and more run heavy due to the addition of JK Dobbins and Lamar Jackson’s rushing abilities, one guy came to mind here. Trey Smith, the OG out of Tennessee, seemed like the natural fit. Smith is an absolute road grader in the run game, absolutely flattening whatever defensive players who are unfortunately enough to get into his way. He’s solid enough in pass protection, but more importantly, his fantastic run blocking paired alongside Orlando Brown Jr should lend itself to an absolutely terrifying run game from the Ravens.
25 - Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR) - Dillion Radunz, OT, NDSU - After drafting their QBOTF in Justin Fields, the Jaguars now need to protect him. And with so much draft capital on their hands, they part ways with some of it in order to move up and grab the last OT I could consider a possible day 1 starter, OT Dillion Radunz out of NDSU. There are some question marks about athleticism and competition level, but Radunz’s technique is elite, and his toughness is unquestionable. He should be a welcome addition to the Jaguars offensive line, and will provide solid protection for Fields.
26 - Las Vegas Raiders - Jay Tufele, DT, USC - The Raiders need pass rush help badly along their DL. Maxx Crosby hasnt lived up to the hype he had after a stellar rookie season, and although Clelin Ferrell is an elite run defender, he’s nowhere near as good of a pass rusher. They need to add someone who can GET after the QB, and Jay Tufele is too much talent to pass up on here.T ufele can be a dominant force at 1 or 3T, with his explosiveness and powerful hands, which allows him to be utterly unblockable at times. And adding such an interior force would boost the Raiders pass rush, as Tufele should be the shot in the arm the Raiders DL needed.
27 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech - The Buccaneers OL was absolutely dominated by the Saints, and Donovan Smith really isnt the long term answer at LT. Christian Darrisaw is an interesting OT prospect who has bee flying up the big boards recently, as a massive mauling tackle who knows how to use his hands and possesses an excellent anchor. There are still some technique issues he needs to hone out, mainly his footwork, but once those are cleaned up, he can easily be an utterly dominant force on the OL.
28 - Buffalo Bills - Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia - The Bills have had serious issues this year at CB2, which has been a huge factor in the regression of the Bills defense from elite last year to absolutely horrid this year. Tyson Campbell has had some issues this year, but he’s still a very tantalizing prospect overall. He’s a bit thin at 6-2 185, but possesses outstanding athleticism and has very loose hips as well as great agility. Although he is a bit raw and would need some development, if McDermott and the Bills can properly develop him, Campbell can be an island in the NFL.
29 - Green Bay Packers - Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia - The Packers pass rush was supposed to be a strength this year, but it's been mostly a weakness. They did show some signs of life against Jacksonville, but that's just one game and the Jaguars OL is near the bottom of the league. Plus, you can never have too much pass rush. Azeez Ojulari is a player who can GET after the QB, and I think Ojulari is the best pure pass rusher on the board. He’s got fantastic hand usage and his low center of gravity lets him bend the corner through contact really well. There’s some work to be done on run defense, but Ojulari does give me flashes of Ngakoue at times, and could be a great fit either alongside Gary or with him if the Packers move Gary to DE for a few snaps.
30 - Kansas City Chiefs - Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama - The Chiefs overall have been elite once again this year, but there’s one clear flaw in their team, the run defense, which ranks in the bottom 5 in the league. Good thing Dylan Moses is available here. He’s an elite athlete with plenty of range and can hit like a truck. He also knows when to wrap up and is generally a sure tackler, which is a rather underappreciated trait. He does need to improve his ability to diagnose plays and shed blocks, but overall, he’s a force at ILB, and would greatly help out Chiefs ailing run defense.
31 - New Orleans Saints - Paris Ford, S, Pittsburgh - The Saints are hilariously over the cap next year, needs to cut about $95 million in order to become cap compliant. That means that S Marcus Williams is probably gone, as the Saints simply wont have the money to replace him, which leads to a big hole in the NO secondary. Paris Ford should be a seamless replacement for him. With the ability to play anything from single high to a role closer to the LOS, Ford is an instant starter, who excels especially in pass coverage. Interestingly enough, he also seems to try to become a missile too much of the time and needs improvement on his tackling form, so hopefully the Saints teach this safety how to wrap up properly.
32 - Pittsburgh Steelers - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson - The Steelers dont have a ton of needs, and OT is probably the safest pick here, but James Conner is an FA after this year and there are questions if the Steelers should pay him big money. Travis Etienne is also the best RB in the class and easily BPA here. Etienne is an elite RB, who can break off huge chunks of yardage at a time and rip defenses apart with his burst. He’s also improved his catching ability to where he can be a every down RB. With Pittsburgh still a SB contender for the near future and possibly question marks on James Connor’s future, Etienne seems like a great fit here to both replace Connor’s production and keep Pittsburgh in title contention for the near future.

Firstly, I want to make note that The Black List should be used as a TOOL only. From my past research, it shouldn’t be viewed as a way to get staffed, to find management, or to finally land that big break. While these scenarios ARE possible on TBL... those outcomes, in my experience, are highly improbable. Let me explain…
MY JOURNEY:
I decided to finally take my pilot out for a tour in early 2020, starting with TBL. The partnerships (Sundance, Google, various diversity programs) and the fact that TBL was run by a Black man -- I’m a person of color as well -- were huge draws. There was also a bit of confusion between the website, The Black List, and the annual Black List (released and voted on by Agents, Managers, Network Execs, etc.). However, after a deep dive on Reddit, I came to understand the difference between the two (if you need more info, please click here). This was my first red flag in regards to the shadiness of TBL...
The first time I purchased an evaluation, I bought with my WGA discount, which equals around $60/eval. Note, this was also a red flag at the time, because those who can afford the full amount (WGA members), were being offered a discount, while those from more under-VALUED communities, had to pay full price. I’ve worked in the industry for over 12 years, and I can honestly say... “This is the epitome of what’s wrong with Hollywood.” But, I continued on…
Thanks to Reddit, I learned that you should purchase evaluations in groups of 2. Why? It’s because you need at least 2 Scores (2 evals minimum) to be listed on the Top Lists, IF you place. So, buying just one eval when you’re starting out, sort of gets you nowhere. The second part of this is the elusive “8” score. An “8” means the reader “recommends” your script. TBL publicizes an “8” as a golden ticket. I can humblebrag and say that my script received two 8’s. However, more red flags come when some people receive that score. Here are the deets:
Each time I’ve received an “8,” I can get two free evals. I can honestly say that each of those evals (four total) came back at significantly lower scores. In some score components, I’ve received 7s, 8s, and 9s. Within those same components (on the free evals), I’ve received 4s, 5s, and 6s. How do you go from 9s to 4s? This leads me to the biggest complaint… TRANSPARENCY. I’m a gay Black writer. Most of what I write, falls along the lines of my life experiences. While some readers on TBL can completely identify with my stories, over 80% of the industry is straight, White, and male, leading me to …what is the demographic of the readers reviewing my script? And, why is it's kept such a secret?
Long story short, I took the “L’s” I received from the free evaluations, which LOWERED my Top List score significantly. Then, more red flags began to present themselves…
When you receive an “8,” you also get a Twitter blast from TBL’s Twitter page. This was super exciting, because it allows you to retweet TBL saying your script is hella dope! However, when the tweet was published, there was a significant typo. My first thought? This is 2020 and businesses are stretched pretty thin. However, when I reported the typo to TBL Customer Service, I was told that there was nothing they could do. And, I quote from Customer Service: “While we cannot edit the screenshot in the tweet, the [typo] does not appear to be visible in your logline.” I just want to highlight -- their response to an error on their end (after I’ve already spent hundreds of dollars on evals), was to say that at least my logline was correct on their site, even though it was incorrect (and embarrassingly so) on their Twitter page?! What business does that?
The problems don’t end there. I received another “8” months later, and… NO Twitter blast at all. I had to email TBL, after over a month of seeing nothing, to find out what the issue was. Here was their response: “Thank you for your patience. We're looking into the matter now and I will let you know once I have more information.” Unfortunately, I never heard back. I had to reach out AGAIN over a week later, and this was the 2nd response: “Thank you for your patience. We've had a backlog of promotional tweets, but we've doubled our posting frequency now so you should see yours within the next week”...come on!! We all know that’s BS and bad business. Not at any point did I receive an apology or even true acknowledgment re: TBL’s errors. Honestly, using TBL feels like I’m playing the slots in Vegas with no idea on whether the machine is rigged or not, because #TRANSPARENCY.
My next complaint/red flag is in regards to the level of treatment between Pilots and Features. When you go to the industry page, you’ll see Top Genre Lists (Diverse Writes, Scripts with Female Leads, Featured Scripts, etc.). At a glance, this page is a great opportunity (if featured). However, pilot scripts aren’t listed on the main page. Even though I pay the same as Feature writers to host their scripts on TBL, you have to go through additional steps to even SEE the TV pilots. You have to manually switch the platform to “Pilots”... features being the default page. This is grossly UNFAIR and needs to be addressed immediately.
Last (but significant) red flag -- TBL will tell you that there’s no way to cheat the system. As an insider in Hollywood, I know this is false, and went out to find evidence. (Note, this is after realizing that celebrities like Shia Labeouf, are also hosting scripts on TBL). Here’s the scoop…
I have a friend who’s been listed on TBL for years (and currently staffed on a TV show, without the help of TBL). After doing research and reading interviews from Franklin Leonard (TBL Owner), who said that TBL system can’t be cheated, I asked my friend what their experience was at the beginning of my journey. She said that she has gotten friends, who are “Industry” members of TBL, to give her higher scores in the past. She showed me her profile and could track each one. A “9” here… an “8” there. While these scores aren’t as strong as “Reader” scores, they can push you up the Top List ranks, possibly getting more eyeballs on your work. And since this isn’t a “blind system,” popularity/fame can directly influence your scores on TBL. There is DEFINITELY some inequality happening, where well known writers have an advantage over phenomenal writers with no industry connections. The fact that this isn’t addressed, or even worse... the fact that we are gaslit by Franklin Leonard on the topic, is extremely concerning. And I say this with a broken heart, as a Black creator who wanted to support another.
Also, if you’re asking the question: why didn’t she/he/they report the discrepancies in scoring (receiving 4s and 5s for the same categories I’ve scored 8s and 9s in, with the same script)... I did. Here is TBL’s response:
“Thank you for reaching out. Evaluating scripts is always going to be a highly subjective process, and what works for one reader may not work as well for another. Our readers are only given a limited amount of space in which to complete their evaluations, and they cannot comment on every single aspect of a script. We ask readers to comment on elements of the script that, if different, would significantly alter the overall score for the script. Even Oscar-winning scripts like JUNO and ARGO have received some lower ratings on the site.”
Note, this is after their website says to report any extremely divergent scores (a “4” vs a “9”). Their unwillingness to even address their own company policies, is once again, a red flag.
TBL TIPS:

• Buy evaluations in groups of 2 (for Top Lists and Scoring).
• As I said above, TBL feels like gambling in Vegas. Everything about the platform encourages you to keep buying evaluations (the burden being on those from poorer communities), trying to hit that “8.” Therefore, make sure to budget and know when to call it quits/pause, so you can address notes fully before resubmitting.
• Re: Notes -- Don’t change up your entire script based on a couple of reader reviews. Learn to “read between the notes.” Are there patterns? Does the reader have the cultural knowledge to understand your story? I say this because I’ve received conflicting notes (over the stretch of my 10+ reviews). One reader will say they love the plot and pacing of the story (received a “9”), while another reader hates it (and gives it a 4, 5, or 6).
• Understand that TBL is a “Gold Star System.” Even though the level of respect for TBL (mostly because of industry assistants voicing their issues) is slightly weigning, it still highlights your skill level as a writer. If you’re looking to staff or even sell your pilot, an “8” or higher on TBL still carries weight if you’re cold calling/emailing industry people. Even if you don’t receive an 8, the evals are helpful for industry people to understand your potential. But, TBL is only a fraction of what you need to move up in this biz.
• If your initial script receives a “6” or below, I recommend taking some time to rewrite before resubmitting. Is it possible that a different reader would rate that script much higher? Yes! However, like Vegas, it’s a probability game. Give yourself the BEST CHANCE, each time, before buying more evals. Don’t fall into the trap! I’ve been there now, and have done it all. In 2020, I’ve spent almost $800 on just TBL evals alone (not including competitions and etc)... during a pandemic.
  • Also, if you’re wondering... $800 (and two “8s”) has only gotten me around 10 Industry downloads and around 90 views in over nine months. No meetings or opportunities as of yet.

CONCLUSION:
I want to stress that The Black List isn’t the devil. Like most of the conclusions on Reddit, it’s what you make of it. Don’t go in with high expectations. Treat it as a part of your script’s “campaign” …just another resource on how to get your ideas out there. For me, TRANSPARENCY is must for sites like this… especially with all the changes and revelations in 2020. There’s no excuse… at all. Do I constantly feel like I’m being taken advantage of by the TBL? 100%. But, I also know for fact -- in this industry, success is gained by putting your eggs in ALL the baskets (and not just TBL).
Feel free to ask me any questions!
- Anonymous Young TV Writer

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The NBA league office announced that all awards will be officially based on play PRIOR to the bubble. With that, the cases are locked, the campaigns are closed, and the voting will begin.
Rather than give a traditional "Coach of the Year" ballot that ranks from 1-3, I thought it may be an interesting (and indulgent) exercise to go all the way from 1-30.
Some caveats:
--- We're ranking coaches based on their performance THIS SEASON only. Obviously, Billy Donovan isn't as good of a coach as Gregg Popovich. However, if you were only ranking their "Coach of the Year" candidacy for this particular season, Donovan has a better campaign argument.
--- Since I don't watch every game for every team, I'm going to have to resort to a bigger picture analysis. If you're a diehard fan of your team who watches every game, you'd have a lot better insight into a coach's game management and situational adjustments. Let us know how you feel about that -- is your coach underrated? Overrated?
--- Personally, I'm going to rank coaches that started the year (as opposed to interim replacements.) That’s important to mention off the bat, because it applies right away —

the complete COACH OF THE YEAR Ballot

(30) David Fizdale, N.Y. Knicks: 4-18 record
David Fizdale became a head coach with so much fanfare and media approval that his fall from grace has been more dramatic than Icarus. This year, he got fired 22 games into his second season on the job. Amazingly, this isn't the first time that's happened to him. Back in Memphis, he also got fired 19 games into his second season on the job.
We don't know exactly what goes on behind the scenes, but it can't be good. Do you know how bad things must be going to get fired 20 games into a season? That's like being halfway through sex with someone and saying: ya know, I think I need to leave... Something seriously FUNKY must have going on in there. Raging herpes. Oozing puss. Rotten vagina.
I don't want to call David Fizdale the rotten vagina of coaches, but his tenure with the Knicks did smell pretty funky. The team (right or wrong) signed a bunch of veterans with the intention to strive for the 8th seed, but they flopped. Ultimately, the real goal was giving their young prospects an environment to grow, but that didn't happen either. Dennis Smith and Kevin Knox are somehow getting worse and worse.
The Knicks did a full house cleaning, but it may be some time before the smell is out of the building.
(29) John Beilein, Cleveland: 14-40 record
If you think it's difficult to get fired 20 games into a season, imagine getting fired halfway through your first year on the job right after you've signed a lucrative FIVE-YEAR contract.
With John Beilein, we know more clearly what went wrong. In hindsight, it was a mistake to think that the 67-year-old Beilein could make the transition to the NBA after a lifetime in college. He simply didn't mesh with the "thugs/slugs" in the NBA, causing the Cavs to pull the plug before a full-out mutiny.
Given this disaster, how can we rank Beilein higher than Fizdale? We're splitting hairs, but there are a few more positives. Beilein's Cavs had a better record than Fizdale's Knicks despite lower expectations (based on oveunder.) Beilein also "resigned," meaning the decision to part was at least somewhat mutual. He realized the error of his ways, and handed things over to an experienced assistant in J.B. Bickerstaff. As embarrassing and costly as the Beilein era may have been, it's hard to see much long-term damage for the franchise.
(28) Scottie Brooks, Washington: 24-40 record
With John Wall injured, the Washington Wizards would have a hard time competing for the playoffs. Still, Scottie Brooks didn't help matters. The team ranked dead last in defensive rating by a good margin, indicating some serious issues with the system and the effort level. Even Bradley Beal looked disengaged on that end, ranking as one of the worst defenders in the league.
More than anything, Brooks' crime is a slow adjustment to that problem. Despite their defensive issues, he continued to start league LVP Isaiah Thomas for 37 games. Brooks seems like a likable guy, but his slow trigger has defined and tarnished his coaching career so far.
(27) Jim Boylen, Chicago: 22-43 record
Even his defenders would say Jim Boylen is about as cuddly as a cactus and charming as an eel. His players' support for him ranges behind tepid indifference and downright annoyance. Still, sometimes it takes a Grinch to get young players locked in on defense. To his credit, Boylen did improve the Bulls on that end. Their defensive rating leapt up from 25th to 14th this season.
But at the end of the day, the overall results simply aren't here. Despite offensive-minded youngsters like Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen (marginalized this year), the Bulls ranked 27th in offensive rating. Largely as a result, they were on pace to win 27.7 games, well short of their 33.5 oveunder. Being "likable" and being "successful" don't go hand in hand, but NBA coaches need to check 1 of those 2 boxes to survive. So far, Boylen has gone 0 for 2.
(26) Lloyd Pierce, Atlanta: 20-47 record
The Atlanta Hawks hired Lloyd Pierce on the basis of his defensive reputation, but we've seen little evidence of that on the court so far. In his first year on the job, the Hawks ranked 27th in defensive rating. After a full year of training and development in his system, they climbed all the way up to... 28th. Through it all, franchise player Trae Young looks completely lost, grading as a worse defender than our LVP Isaiah Thomas.
There's not much evidence that Pierce is a BAD coach, but there's not much evidence that he's going to be able to cure what ails them either. He'll probably get another season or two on the job from the patient franchise, but he needs to make some improvements eventually. Young is an albatross on defense, sure, but one little guard shouldn't be enough to sink you like this. (For evidence, consider Boston ranked 4th in defense during lil' Isaiah Thomas' near-MVP season.)
(25) Kenny Atkinson, Brooklyn: 28-34 record
Our third coach who got fired midseason actually ranks higher than others. On the court, it's hard to find much fault in Kenny Atkinson's performance. Despite having two max players on the shelf, he still had his Nets in the playoff race. They weren't any great shakes, but they were competitive.
However, we have to acknowledge that the job of an NBA coach goes beyond offensive and defensive ratings. It's also about managing a locker room, and managing egos. The Nets had built a good culture before this, but that culture presumably got rocked by the arrival of their new stars. It's up to Atkinson to bridge that gap, and instead it swallowed him whole.
(24) Ryan Saunders, Minnesota: 19-45 record
The Minnesota Timberwolves will fall well short of their preseason expectations (35.5 oveunder), and will continue to waste Karl-Anthony Towns' historically good offensive talent. It's still unclear if young pup Ryan Saunders should have been handed this job at such a young age; he hasn't proven that he deserves it yet.
If there's any consolation, it's that Saunders appears in lock step with executive Gersson Rosas in terms of preferred playing style. Rosas came over from Houston with a desire to create more of a Morey-Ball approach. Saunders is doing his part, cranking up the gas to keep the team 3rd in pace, 3rd in three-point attempts, 3rd in free-throw attempts. The results don't match up yet, but at least they're on the same page. For now. Time will tell whether a new ownership group will come in and rip up that playbook.
(23) Gregg Popovich, San Antonio: 27-36 record
I imagine this low ranking will be among the least popular picks on the board. After all, Gregg Popovich is a legend. Even at this age, he's still a top 10 coach overall.
That said, legends aren't bullet proof or immune from criticism. Popovich needs to take some blame for an underwhelming year in San Antonio. The unconventional mid-range offense actually works better than you'd expect (11th in rating), but the problems come on the other end. The Spurs have struggled mightily on D this year, ranking all the way down at 25th. The rotations have been an issue there, with too much Bryn Forbes and Marco Bellinelli and probably too little Jakob Poeltl.
It still may feel weird to rank Pop in the bottom half for his performance this year, but I'd ask you: if this team was coached by a random dude named "Joe Schmo," where would you put him?
(22) Brett Brown, Philadelphia: 39-26 record
This hasn't been a banner year for Gregg Popovich, and it hasn't been a banner year for his protege Brett Brown either. The Sixers made some head-scratching decisions this offseason. They grabbed the biggest pieces they could find, and jammed them together without much regard for "fit." Still, there's a lot of talent here. There's enough talent to justify their 54.5 preseason oveunder, and there's enough talent to compete with everyone in the East (outside of Milwaukee, perhaps.)
Instead, the Sixers stumbled along on a 49-win pace, on track for the 6th seed. If this was a normal year without the COVID-bubble, then that would be a much bigger problem. The team is starting to make some adjustments and add more shooters like Shake Milton into the lineup, but it may be too little, too late.
(21) Dwane Casey, Detroit: 20-46 record
It's hard to judge veteran Dwane Casey either way based on the returns this season so far. The Pistons will fall well short of preseason expectations (37.5 oveunder), but there are obvious reasons why. Star Blake Griffin got injured again, and pseudo-star Andre Drummond got traded away.
To Dwane Casey's credit, he's tried to make a meal with the leftovers in the cupboard. Derrick Rose continues to be a fan favorite (if not an analytical darling), and PF Christian Wood appears to be a breakout success. Overall, there's no real identity or grand plan in place here, but perhaps that will change if the lottery balls go their way.
(20) Terry Stotts, Portland: 29-37 record
Terry Stotts and Dwane Casey may have a few beers after the season and commiserate together about their challenges this year. Like Casey, Stotts has been overwhelmed by injuries -- to Jusuf Nurkic -- to Zach Collins -- to Rodney Hood -- to Trevor Ariza -- etc. All this from a team that didn't have much depth to start.
Stotts and the Blazers drew a stroke of good luck with this bubble format. They'll be in the 9th spot right now, and well within range to sneak into the playoffs. If it wasn't for that, Stotts may be drawing more fire. The team's defense has slipped to 27th overall, which is hard to excuse no matter what roster problems you have. Stotts is a good and respected coach in general, but there's a chance his message may have run stale here. If they bomb out in the bubble, I wouldn't be surprised if they look for a fresh voice like assistant Nate Tibbetts for next year.
(19) Luke Walton, Sacramento: 28-36 record
Luke Walton and the Kings got off to a disastrous start given their expectations. It's never a good sign when your fanbase grumbles, he's no Dave Joerger.
But after weathering the storm, there are some signs of hope on the horizon. A bold decision to bring Buddy Hield off the bench has worked out, with the team rattling off a 13-7 stretch before the shutdown. They had a slim chance to rally and make the playoffs if we played a full schedule, and they'll have some chance to do the same in the bubble. Overall, a disappointing start for Walton, but not a complete disaster.
(18) James Borrego, Charlotte: 23-42 record
It's very difficult to judge James Borrego, because it's difficult to judge exactly what was going on in the twisted minds of the Charlotte front office. On paper, Borrego did an admirable job to take a bad roster and lead them to a decent mark of 23 wins. In fact, their oveunder coming into this year was only 23.5 over a full 82 games (lowest in the NBA). P.J. Washington's had a nice rookie year, and PG Devonte' Graham has been better than expected (although he's cooled off.)
At the same time, is this what the Hornets wanted? A "not THAT bad" team? As a result, they'll end up in the 8th slot prior to the NBA Draft lottery, in that dreaded middle ground. In a sense, Borrego did too good of a job squeezing out a few extra wins. I'm inclined to give him props for that because the franchise must have given him a mandate to compete (why else sign Terry Rozier to a big contract?). As a franchise, the team gets poor grades, but as a coach, it's hard to fault him here.
(17) Alvin Gentry, New Orleans: 28-36 record
James Borrego hasn't had much talent to work with in Charlotte. Down in Nawlins, Alvin Gentry may have too much. Earlier in the season, he appeared overwhelmed by all the pieces on the roster and struggled to develop a consistent rotation for the team. If it wasn't for Brandon Ingram's breakout, the Pelicans could have been in too deep of a whole to dig their way out.
Of course, some stocky rookie waddled in, and looked pretty darn good. Zion Williamson gives this team an entirely new ceiling, and has been worked into the lineup in a smart, prudent fashion. For that, Gentry deserves credit. He also deserves credit for having a consistent philosophy. His team is going to run, run, run like Forrest Gump. They've finished in the top 3 in pace each season for the past three years. It hasn't worked like a charm overall, as Gentry will be on track to finish with a losing record for the 4th time in his 5 years, but perhaps they'll finally hit their stride in the bubble.
(16) Steve Clifford, Orlando: 30-35 record
By this point, what you see is what you get with coach Steve Clifford. We've come to expect a top 10 defense (# 9 this year), but a record around the .500 mark. In his defense, the offensive talent is limited, and Jon Isaac (arguably their best overall player) missed significant time. Still, for Clifford to jump in these yearly rankings, we need to see more of an offensive system in place.
(15) Steve Kerr, Golden State: 15-50 record
WTF? Why is the coach with the worst record in the league doing all the way up here?
Allow me to explain. Being a head coach is like being a jockey. You need to know when to trot, when to stay with the pack, and when to crack the whip and turn up the gas down the stretch. And, sadly, you need to know when your horse is lame and needs to be shot and put out of its misery.
Steve Kerr and the Golden State Warriors realized they had a wobbly, broken-down horse early on, and put the breaks on sooner than later. As a result, they'll be locked into the # 1 spot among their NBA lottery odds. In theory that doesn't matter much because the top three teams (GS, CLE, MIN) all have the same odds at # 1 overall. However, if they slide down, Golden State will remain ahead of the others; the worst pick they can get is # 5. That type of patience is rare and admirable for a veteran coach like Kerr; after years of being in "win now" mode, he's showing a long-term vision as well.
(14) Nate McMillan, Indiana: 39-26 record
The Indiana Pacers continued to chug along with another playoff appearance despite Victor Oladipo missing more time. Coach Nate McMillan (and assistant Dan Burke) deserve a lot of credit for their strength defensively; they finished in the top 10 in defense for the second season in a row. Their scheme works well, and covers for some limited players along the way.
If there's any criticism of McMillan, it'd be on the offensive end. The Pacers found a little something with Domatas Sabonis as a playmaker (5.0 assists per game), but it's still not enough to make the team formidable offensively. Their "MoreyBall" rating is the worst in the league -- they finished last in both free-throw attempts and three-point attempts. Some teams can overcome that playing style, but the Pacers haven't been one of them; their offensive rating is # 18 for the second straight year. Given that need, I'd be curious to see if the team could develop Doug McDermott into a Bojan Bogdanovic - type player for them -- he hit 44.5% of his threes, but got only 20.0 minutes a game.
(13) Monty Williams, Phoenix: 26-39 record
This ranking may seem too high for the coach of a 26-39 team, but we need to consider some context here. The Phoenix Suns had finished with an average record of 20-62 over the last two seasons, so this 33-win pace is a marked step up for them. They've also gotten into the top 20 in offensive and defensive rating. That may sound like mediocrity to you, but again it's a big jump up from the previous year (28th offensive, 29th defense.)
Better still, we're seeing some strong player development from this club. Deandre Ayton still looked strong post PED suspension, and Mikal Bridges played well in the second half of the year. After all the mess and goat stink in Phoenix, there are actual good vibes here, and Monty Williams deserves credit for that.
(12) Quin Snyder, Utah: 41-23 record
Quin Snyder is an awesome coach, only penalized here by his own lofty expectations. Coming into the season, a few pundits though the Jazz may have what it took to be the top seed in the West, but they're going to fall short of that and even fall short of their preseason oveunder (of 53.5 wins). Of course, it didn't help that Mike Conley forgot how to shoot for the few month or two of the season. Still, Snyder's bunch continues to be well coached on both ends, with ball movement on offense and discipline on defense. They'd have been an interesting playoff darkhorse if not for the bad corona-vibes and the unfortunate Bojan Bogdanovic injury.
(11) Mike Malone, Denver: 43-22 record
Denver's Mike Malone is in the same boat as Quin Snyder; he did a good job, but he's expected to do a good job. I'm going to rank him slightly higher because the Nuggets were slightly ahead, and were also set to slightly exceed their preseason win total (on track to win 54, 1 game better than their 53.0 estimate.)
Going forward, it'll be interesting to see if Malone can take his offense up a notch. They play at a very slow pace (29th) and don't shoot many threes (26th). To actually win the title, their shooters will need to step it up. If Gary Harris won't break out of his prolonged slump, then it's imperative that Michael Porter Jr. fulfills his potential and provides that third scoring punch.
(10) Doc Rivers, L.A. Clippers: 44-20 record
Stars and shooting aren't a problem for the Los Angeles Clippers. It's fair to say they're the most talented roster in the entire NBA. Given that, is their 44-20 record a disappointment? Eh. Maybe. But I'd counter that it doesn't really matter. Doc Rivers' primary mission this regular season was to make it to the playoffs healthy, and the team appears on track to do just that.
If there's any criticism here (of a team with a top 5 offense and defense) it's that their best players may not have gotten enough reps together. Do the new kids on the block Kawhi Leonard and Paul George fit with the old guard in Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell? What's the best starting lineup? Best closing lineup? There are still some unanswered questions here that need to be addressed in a hurry if they're going to fulfill their title aspirations in the bubble.
(9) Taylor Jenkins, Memphis: 32-33 record
Personally, I expected the Memphis Grizzlies to have the worst in the Western Conference, so it's downright shocking that they're in the 8th spot at the moment. The NBA may be trying to steal that playoff berth away from them, but that won't change the great job that rookie coach Taylor Jenkins has done this year.
Are the Grizzlies actually this good? Probably not. Their advanced stats are worse than their record, and Jaren Jackson Jr. hasn't taken the expected leap on defense yet. Still, wins are wins, and a coach shouldn't be penalized for collecting more than he should.
(8) Mike D'Antoni, Houston: 40-24 record
Based on the simple matter of wins versus preseason expectations (and an oveunder of 54.0), the Houston Rockets have been slightly underwhelming this year. Still, veteran Mike D'Antoni deserves a lot of credit for remaking the team on the fly. Changing from Chris Paul to Russell Westbrook may not be a huge difference in quality, but it's a huge difference in playing style. As a result, the Rockets leapt up from the 26th fastest pace last year all the way up to 4th this season. They'll looking like a proper D'Antoni and Morey team right now.
In fact, they've taken that bold experiment up another notch this year by ditching Clint Capela and emulating Rick Moranis. So far, so good. These Smallball Rockets still have some lingering question marks about their defense and their rebounding, but they're extremely dangerous right now nonetheless. It's hard to imagine too many older coaches understanding and embracing this like D'Antoni has.
(7) Brad Stevens, Boston: 43-21 record
Brad Stevens has always been a media darling, and he's justifying that reputation this year. The Celtics lost Kyrie Irving and Al Horford, but are still top 5 in offense and top 5 in defense. Life without Kyrie has gone swimmingly, opening up some air for young stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to breathe; they're both in the running for Most Improved Player.
As with Mike D'Antoni, Stevens also deserves credit for working with a limited hand at center. But rather than force the issue and overplay some stiffs, he's understood that the team just may be better off with 6'8" Daniel Theis manning the fort instead.
(6) Frank Vogel, L.A. Lakers: 49-14 record
It's never a good sign when you sign a new contract with a team, and are immediately placed among the favorites for "First Coach Fired" in Vegas. Frank Vogel walked that tightrope this season, with plenty of spectators expecting him to fail and fall to his demise.
Instead, Vogel has kept his head down, and kept his focus, and helped this Lakers team grab the # 1 seed out West. Obviously it's an easier task when you have LeBron James and Anthony Davis, but this isn't a loaded roster otherwise. Moreover, there are a lot of moving parts and new pieces to work in. The fact that Vogel has this largely-old team ranked # 3 in defensive rating is a true testament to his success this year.
(5) Mike Budenholzer, Milwaukee: 53-12 record
Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo is on track to win his second consecutive MVP award. While we tend to think the media likes new "narratives," but we've seen repeat winners before. Since 2000, Tim Duncan repeated as MVP, Steve Nash repeated as MVP, LeBron James repeated as MVP (on two separate occasions), and Steph Curry repeated as MVP as well.
Coaches don't get the same luxury. In fact, since the award was created in 1962, the Coach of the Year winner has NEVER repeated the following season. You win once, you get to the back of the line. That tendency has really hurt Mike Budenholzer's candidacy this year. On paper, he should absolutely be in the running. The Bucks are once again # 1 in defense, # 1 in overall rating, # 1 in W-L record. They're on a better pace than last year's team, despite losing Malcolm Brogdon over the summer. If Giannis can repeat for the same feat twice, why shouldn't Budenholzer be allowed to do the same?
(4) Rick Carlisle, Dallas: 40-27 record
Everyone expected the Milwaukee Bucks to be dominant, but no one expected the Dallas Mavericks to be this good, this early. They've jumped the line and arrived in the playoffs earlier than schedule. They're only 1 win away from beating their preseason oveunder of 40.5 despite all the missed games.
Like Mike Budenholzer, Rick Carlisle has benefited in that endeavor from a transcendent player in Luka Doncic. At the same time, this Mavs' machine has been rolling with and without Doncic. They rank # 1 in offensive efficiency this year, and depending on whether you want to factor in pace and league trends or not, they may have one of the best offenses we've ever seen from a statistical standpoint. It's quite an achievement from a coach who cut his stripes as a defensive specialist, and indicates the type of attitude that coaches need to adapt and evolve over time.
(3) Erik Spoelstra, Miami: 41-24 record
The Miami Heat pulled a free agency coup by signing Jimmy Butler away from Philadelphia. Still, it's not like people expected that to vault them to the top of the East. Butler was a good player, but a difficult one to manage. He blended into the crowd as well as a skinhead at a Bar Mitzvah. Overall, adding Butler only boosted the team's preseason oveunder win total to a modest 43.5.
Turns out, Butler fit in better with the Heat than anyone expected, on and off the court. Butler hasn't shot well from the field, but his attacking and playmaking helped open up the offense (6th in the league) and propelled the team to a 51.7-win pace. He's fit in like a glove in terms of their tough-dude culture as well.
Erik Spoelstra should get huge props for developing that culture and that system. But more than anything, he deserves credit for their player development system. Sure, Jimmy Butler is a star, and Bam Adebayo had star talent. At the same time, no one had ever heard of players like Kendrick Nunn and Duncan Robinson at this time last year. These are complete randos who will make a combined $3M this season -- just half of Cristiano Felicio's salary. Having a coach who can grow talent like that in his backyard is a huge advantage for any franchise.
(2) Billy Donovan, Oklahoma City: 41-24 record
After Oklahoma City blew it up this summer by trading Russell Westbrook and Paul George, coach Billy Donovan felt like a dead man walking. Instead, Donovan and those fireproof zombie hordes in OKC sieged to a 41-24 record. How good is that? Hell, it's an even better winning percentage than the team had last year with Westbrook and George (in a career year.)
Given all this surprising success, Donovan would be a fair winner of this award. He's managed to take in a bunch of new bodies and form a cohesive team. He's even had success playing three point guards together (CP3, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Dennis Schroder.)
If you want to nitpick his candidacy, you could point out that the hodgepodge roster has a lot of talent scattered throughout. Chris Paul had become underrated, and Danilo Gallinari has always been underrated as well. The team's low preseason oveunder total (32.5) was largely based on the uncertainty about further trades. Everyone knew that this team had the talent to be competitive if they stayed together. Still, no one expected them to be this good.
(1) Nick Nurse, Toronto: 46-18 record
Last season, Nick Nurse finally got his first chance as an NBA head coach. He ended up having as good of a rookie year as anyone since Henry Rowengartner. Nurse coached circles around some of the best in the business en route to a championship season.
Amazingly, he may have been even more impressive this year. Without Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green, the Toronto Raptors held steady and didn't miss much of a beat. In fact, they're on pace to win 58.9 games, over a dozen more than their preseason oveunder of 46.5.
Technically, Nurse still has limited experience as an NBA head coach, but he's already proven to be one of the masters. If we were to judge based on the results of this (semi-)season only, he'd be my personal "Coach of the Year."